As of February 2026, the European Union (EU) and at least 16 other countries had announced a number of SAF policies, ranging from full blending mandates to production targets or more speculative ambition statements. These countries can be grouped according to their likely enforcement of SAF targets post-2030 (see Figure 11). The criteria for these groupings include progress with regulatory design and legislation, the definition of enforcement mechanisms and historical precedent: –Highly likely targets: EU’s 27 member states, United Kingdom. These are countries where long-term targets are enshrined in legislation. –Likely targets: Brazil, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Turkey. Governments of these countries have set ambitious SAF targets and reiterated their willingness to scale up SAF and wider biofuels industries as priorities. Legislation is newer and targets tend not to extend beyond 2030. –Possible targets: Canada, China, Chile, Indonesia, Thailand, United Arab Emirates. These countries have introduced or are likely to introduce preliminary SAF strategies, incentives and roadmaps, but have not yet set long-term ambitions. –Speculative targets: Australia, United States. These countries favour tax credits and incentives rather than mandates at this stage. Future SAF demand scenarios Country groupings based on likely enforcement of SAF targets post-2030 FIGURE 11 Note: The 16 countries assessed (as noted in the figure above) and the EU have stated targets or ambitions to blend SAF with jet fuel between 2025 and 2050. These countries are divided into four groups in the map, based on an assessment of the likelihood that governments will ensure that airlines flying out of their country will comply. Source: HSBC analysis for Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook.Highly likely: EU 27 & United Kingdom Likely: Brazil, India, Japan, Malaysia, Singapor e, South Kor ea, T ürkiye Possible: Canada, Chile, China, Indonesia, Thailand, UAE Speculative: Australia, USEU & UK currently have the strongest SAF targets post-2030 US is not focusing on mandates at this stage Australia is not focusing on mandates at this stage Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 50