Market conditions, as potentially affected by the factors discussed in this report, will determine the likelihood that mandates (where already in place) will remain unaltered post-2030 and the rate at which targets will ratchet up over time. To calculate the associated global SAF demand that could be underpinned by future policy, the country groupings in Figure 11 have been used to construct the following three hypothetical scenarios for 2040 (see below and Table 1): –Reduced scenario: Some rollback of policy or postponement of targets. This may be equivalent to ~21 million tonnes of SAF demand in 2040, approximately 6% of the potential jet fuel demand in that year. –Base scenario: All current targets or stated ambitions are maintained through to 2040, with no material increase beyond those already announced. This scenario underpins global SAF demand of ~40 million tonnes by 2040. –Momentum scenario: Continuation of mandates beyond 2030, including gradual expansion of SAF blending requirements in jurisdictions where policy has only been confirmed up to 2030. This could correspond to ~62 million tonnes of SAF demand by 2040, or 19% of total jet fuel demand. 2040 SAF scenarios and assumptions on policy evolution TABLE 1 Highly likelyCountry gr ouping Likely Possible Speculative Reduced scenario: Base scenario: Momentum scenario:2030 targets onlyAll curr ent targets r emain and these ar e assumed to increase incr ementally by 1 per centage point per year , if no targets beyond 2030 have been set yetAll curr ent targets r emain in placeAll curr ent targets r emain in place2030 targets ar e halvedAll curr ent targets or ambition remain in placeAll curr ent targets or ambition remain in placeAll curr ent targets or ambition remain in placeNo targetsThe most r ecent target is halvedTargets ar e kept ﬂat after 2030-2035Targets ar e kept ﬂat after 2030-2035 Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 51