Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026

The assumptions across each scenario are summarized in Table 1, while the SAF demand volumes entailed by each scenario are set out in Figure 12. A full breakdown of the SAF blend percentage of each country can be found in Table 3 below. Potential total SAF demand in 2040 across three scenarios (million tonnes) FIGURE 12 Sources: HSBC analysis for Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook, S&P Global Energy, Carbon Direct.200Highly likely Likely Possible Speculative0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Reduced scenario Base scenario Momentum scenario Million tonnes Country gr oupings based on likely enfor cement of SAF targets post-2030 Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 52