Taking into consideration projects which are already operational today, as well as those under construction or in various phases of development, BloombergNEF (BNEF) estimates the current SAF project pipeline to surpass 43 million tonnes of annual production capacity.* HEFA projects make up the majority of this pipeline.201 However, not all SAF plants that have been announced will be able to achieve final investment decision (FID) and progress to construction and operation. By assessing a range of factors – including feedstock procurement strategies, progress on regulatory compliance and permitting, construction status, and financing and offtake agreements of individual refineries – BNEF expects that roughly half of this pipeline (22.9 million tonnes) may become operational, referred to below as “BNEF’s realistic case”.202 For comparison, SkyNRG expects a pipeline of around 18 million tonnes,203 while IATA forecasts around 20 million tonnes of SAF capacity by 2030. Approximately one-third of this SAF production capacity is expected to be in the US, with Asia- Pacific and Europe expected to have similar capacities.204 The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) estimates the EU will reach a production capacity of 3.6 million tonnes by 2030.205 Table 2 compares the potential SAF demand across scenarios in 2040 with the current projected SAF pipeline. Figure 13 shows how demand compares with the current projected SAF pipeline capacity, broken down by project status and technology. This comparison shows that only if the entire current SAF production pipeline were to become operational would there be enough capacity to meet demand in the base scenario by 2040. However, under BNEF’s more realistic case noted above, the current pipeline would be sufficient to meet SAF demand only under a reduced ambition scenario; however, under the base scenario, the realistic pipeline could meet just half of SAF demand expected by 2040, while under the momentum scenario it could meet more than one-third of anticipated demand. This demand-supply pipeline comparison highlights that additional SAF production capacity will most likely need to become operational to produce sufficient SAF to meet demand by 2040. Current SAF project pipeline Comparison between potential SAF demand in 2040 and current projected SAF pipeline capacity, by scenario (million tonnes/Mt)TABLE 2 Sources: BloombergNEF (BNEF).* The global SAF production pipeline reflects a point-in- time snapshot of all known projects at the time of this analysis, rather than an expected commissioning date of these facilities. The 43 million tonnes figure represents aggregated announced nameplate capacity across operational, under-construction and development stage projects. Demand scenariosSAF demand in 2040 (Mt)SAF supply – current projected SAF pipeline capacity (Mt/year) If all current pipeline projects become operationalIf ~half pipeline projects become operational (BNEF’s realistic case) Reduced 20.76 43.29 22.85Base 39.96 Momentum 61.66 Global Aviation Sustainability Outlook 2026 53