Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025

2.2 Four futures for competitiveness in 2030 Notes: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. All values are at the global level unless specified otherwise. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. In this scenario, regulatory overload and geopolitical volatility have created a fragmented and adversarial global order. Trust in global cooperation has declined, and the global economy is shaped by strategic insulation, uncertain alliances and the weaponization of resources, rules and policy tools. Competitiveness is increasingly driven by resilience, regulatory adaptability and strategic alignment with geopolitical blocs. By 2030, productivity and prosperity gains have eroded, and the global economy is on the brink of recession. Price shocks, supply shortages and uncertainty are common, with global rivalries leading to increased fiscal pressures and halting the diffusion of innovation, knowledge and talent. Global integration efforts have retreated since the mid-2020s, with conflicts, strategic rivalries and geopolitical tensions flaring. A spiral of retaliatory trade restrictions that started in 2025 has escalated into a prolonged trade war. The prospects for geopolitical normalization have faltered, and the value of global trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows has retreated from the mid-2020s peak of $33 trillion41 and $1.4 trillion,42 respectively. Stronger ties within geopolitical blocs have cushioned the impact of fragmentation. Yet, global value chains have undergone a systemic transformation following a period of cascading retaliatory measures and emerging geopolitical flashpoints, and a prolonged splintering of digital, financial, regulatory and business environments. The majority of jobs and supply chains have been reshored or friend-shored. Financial flows between blocs have almost entirely tapered off by the end of the decade, and even flows within blocs have become heavily restricted. The erosion of trust and shared norms has led to the emergence of competing systems of values and rules, fuelling new conflicts and pulling blocs further apart. Governments have turned inward to shield themselves from uncertainty, systemic shocks and growing security threats. Protectionist policies – such as industrial subsidies, market access restrictions and data sovereignty provisions – have become common tools to tilt market dynamics, strengthen and shield domestic economies and shape coercive geoeconomic diplomacy. The scope and stringency of business regulations have increased dramatically, with global compliance spending having risen above $270 billion43 since the mid-2020s. The operating environment for businesses has been squeezed by growing geopolitical and regulatory constraints. Corporate insolvencies have nearly doubled compared to mid-2020s levels.44 Many firms have been forced to prioritize among markets pursuing hyper-localized supply chains or aligning operations with geopolitical blocs. Businesses in strategic sectors such as energy, semiconductors, AI and biotechnology may benefit from preferential access to capital, talent and resources. Businesses that localize their operations can reduce exposure to cross-border volatility and diverging compliance requirements. However, many run the risk of market exclusion due to intensified local competition and the downstream impact of regulatory escalation and value chain disruptions. High regulatory stringency and high geopolitical volatilityA world of protectionist competition shaped by stringent regulations and geopolitical instability. The global economy is increasingly shaped by strategic insulation, uncertain alliances and the weaponization of resources, rules and policy tools. GDP growth, % annual Baseline: 2.8% (IMF, 2025) Total factor productivity, % annual Baseline: 0.7% (The Conference Board, 2024) Share of new companies, % of total companies Baseline: 9% (World Bank, 2022) Ratio of discriminatory to liberalizing trade measures Baseline: 2.9 (Global Trade Alert, 2025) Compliance spending, $ annual Baseline: $270 billion (Accenture, 2020) Average distance of trade flows, km Baseline: 4,980 km (DHL, 2024) Share of foreign workers, % of total workforce Baseline: 6.9% (ILO, 2024 or latest available) Number of patent applications, annual Baseline: 3.5 million (WIPO, 2023)Scenario 1: Fortress Economics Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 14