Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025

In this scenario, major powers and economies with large domestic markets are dictating the pace and shape of global economic activity. Middle powers and economies with control of critical raw materials or strategic supply chain components are also well-positioned to benefit. However, many emerging economies and small states – especially those outside the main blocs – face capital flight, marginalization and long-term deterioration of business ecosystems and living standards. Notes: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. All values are at the global level, unless specified otherwise. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. In this scenario, geopolitical stability and stricter business regulations have created a predictable and rules-based global landscape. The newfound stability has boosted investment and prompted a shift from crisis response to long-term strategies. Purpose-driven policies and business models have emerged, driven by stronger standards and guardrails around technology, finance, climate and labour markets. It is regulators, not just market dynamics, that shape the contours of economic activity and competition in this scenario. The global order that has emerged is not frictionless, but it is resilient. Global uncertainty has dropped to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels,45 and public trust in institutions has recovered. The cooling of geopolitical flashpoints and scaling of smart regulations pushed the global economy out of a “stagflationary” phase in the late 2020s. Competitiveness has become a function of compliance mastery, long-term planning and the ability to shape and influence regulations. The geopolitical volatility of the mid-2020s has proved to be short-lived. Global military spending has plateaued at $2.5 trillion,46 and global trade and FDI flows have returned to a positive growth trajectory following a contraction in the mid-2020s.47 This stability has served as a moment of structural renewal in the global economy rather than a return to the old models of cooperation and globalization. Domestic resilience and strategic competitiveness considerations have been embedded into economic policy decisions following the economic and institutional impact of earlier crises.The scale of disruptions from systemic shocks, worsening climate change and rapid commercialization of AI have pushed governments to tighten regulatory playbooks. Labour regulations have strengthened, and ESG (environmental, social and governance) reporting has become legally binding across most jurisdictions. The number of newly introduced policies targeting FDI each year has increased sharply from an average of 149 in the early-2020s. The number of sustainable finance regulations globally has also increased.48 The renewed stability has also allowed for regulatory modernization. New frameworks have emerged covering frontier technologies and new business models. For example, the share of old-generation international investment agreements (IIAs) has dropped from 49% since the mid-2020s,49 and a new post-Basel III financial stability framework has expanded to regulate a growing pool of digital assets. The number of “smart” trade and industrial policies has surged, allowing global value chains to mature under a new period of regulated interconnectedness. Although extensive, the emerging standards have failed to create a fully integrated global business environment. Global innovation, talent and finance ecosystems have diverged. Tighter ethical and environmental guardrails have increased time- to-market for new technologies and slashed the prospect of wider diffusion of frontier innovation. High regulatory stringency and low geopolitical volatilityGeopolitical stability and stronger regulatory oversight create a more predictable business environment. Competitiveness is less restricted by strategic alliances and is increasingly shaped by the ability to navigate and shape regulations, cross-border regulatory arbitrage and longterm investments and strategies. GDP growth, % annual Baseline: 2.8% (IMF, 2025) Total factor productivity, % annual Baseline: 0.7% (The Conference Board, 2024) Share of new companies, % of total companies Baseline: 9% (World Bank, 2022) Ratio of discriminatory to liberalizing trade measures Baseline: 2.9 (Global Trade Alert, 2025) Compliance spending, $ annual Baseline: $270 billion (Accenture, 2020) Average distance of trade flows, km Baseline: 4,980 km (DHL, 2024) Share of foreign workers, % of total workforce Baseline: 6.9% (ILO, 2024 or latest available) Number of patent applications, annual Baseline: 3.5 million (WIPO, 2023)Scenario 2: Negotiated Order Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 15