Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025

Low regulatory stringency and low geopolitical volatilityGeopolitical stability and reduced regulatory barriers enable rapid innovation, economic dynamism and open competition, halting the growth slowdown of recent decades. Lower safeguards and uneven distribution of benefits, however, eventually erode prosperity and convergence. GDP growth, % annual Baseline: 2.8% (IMF, 2025) Total factor productivity, % annual Baseline: 0.7% (The Conference Board, 2024) Share of new companies, % of total companies Baseline: 9% (World Bank, 2022) Ratio of discriminatory to liberalizing trade measures Baseline: 2.9 (Global Trade Alert, 2025) Compliance spending, $ annual Baseline: $270 billion (Accenture, 2020) Average distance of trade flows, km Baseline: 4,980 km (DHL, 2024) Share of foreign workers, % of total workforce Baseline: 6.9% (ILO, 2024 or latest available) Number of patent applications, annual Baseline: 3.5 million (WIPO, 2023)Scenario 4: Fluid Orderstrained by the turbulence of the early 2020s, have further splintered as businesses rapidly restructure operations to align with new geopolitical divisions and secure access to fragmented markets. Diversification and supply chain duplication strategies are widespread, with the share of the ten largest economies in global trade dropping below the mid-2020s level of 42%.50 Divisions have widened, forcing businesses to navigate a patchwork of inconsistent rules and shifting alliances. Corporate diplomacy has become increasingly important. As state influence has waned, non-state actors have moved to fill the void – aiming to restore confidence and influence the future shape of the global economy. The use of violence and proxy conflicts as a coercive tool has risen. Access to strategic markets and critical commodities – like rare earths, food, water and energy – has become one of the major chokepoints in global value chains. Tighter export controls, strategic stockpiling and onshoring are common but insufficient tools for addressing supply shortages and price volatility. A two-tier dynamic has emerged. Large businesses as well as high-growth firms of any size – especially those in strategic sectors or with built-in agility – have used their influence and capital to navigate uncertainty, capture new markets and deter competition. Meanwhile, others are struggling to cope with persistent volatility, mounting risks and accelerating change. As a result, corporate profitability has diverged – large and high-growth companies have seen their margins surge, widening the gap with laggards. Corporate strategies have become increasingly short-term, opportunistic and cost-driven, while long-term investments in human capital, innovation, infrastructure and broad-based prosperity have withered. As capital flows to speculative ventures and governments face tightening fiscal constraints, structural underinvestment has worsened in key sectors like healthcare, education and energy. Cyber and societal threats have intensified, driven in part by a lack of shared ethical standards for advanced technologies, leading to digital fragmentation across regions. As global governance deteriorates and economic confidence wanes, the burden of resilience and norm-setting has shifted to communities, households and individuals. Notes: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. All values are at the global level, unless specified otherwise. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. In this scenario, the simultaneous easing of regulatory and geopolitical conditions has revived global market dynamics and entrepreneurship to levels unseen since the 1980s. Regulatory stringency has been scaled back across sectors, with governments now acting more as enablers than enforcers. Market boundaries are increasingly porous, allowing new entries, experimentation and creative competition. Cooperation on shared global challenges has become more decentralized, with coalitions of the willing and market dynamics becoming key enablers of faster progress. A shift to smart regulations and the expansion of “regulatory sandboxes” have enabled rapid scaling of innovation and productivity. Technology, knowledge, talent and capital are circulating more freely now. New innovation clusters and growth hotspots have emerged, with many developing economies rivalling legacy technology leaders. Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 17