Global innovation output has surpassed 3.5 million patent applications annually.51 The cost of market entry has fallen across major economies, and the share of newly registered firms has risen above 9%.52 By the end of the decade, global growth has outpaced early-decade projections of around 3%.53 The successive systemic shocks and persistent uncertainty of recent decades have created political will to prioritize stability and institutional strengthening. The easing of major geopolitical tensions has fostered a climate of trust, revitalizing global cooperation on trade, standards and innovation. Global value chains have been partially reintegrated, with the annual growth of global trade and investment flows settling in the double-digits by 2030.54 Reformed multilateral agreements and governance structures have levelled the playing field in key industries such as technology, finance, health, energy and others. Multinational partnerships are expanding, enabling technology transfers, risk sharing and more efficient deployment of resources. Governments and businesses are investing heavily in developing innovation ecosystems, and global R&D spending has surged from the mid-2020s level of $2.8 trillion annually.55 High-growth markets – including AI, green technologies, robotics and smart infrastructure – have been notable beneficiaries of corporate and public investment inflows. Competition has intensified globally and is driven by agility, innovation and capacity to attract talent and capital. Critical supply chains have been optimized around a mix of just-in-case and just- in-time strategies. Deepening global integration and confidence in enduring stability have caused the average distance of international trade flows to surpass 5,000 km.56 Many producer nations and smaller economies have successfully harnessed the more stable and open global environment to attract capital and pursue leapfrog strategies. Lean and smart regulations have become common policy tools, relying on incentives, performance- based benchmarks and iterative feedback rather than rigid rule-setting. However, oversight of deregulation has diminished, raising the risk of safety lapses and backsliding in consumer protection, data privacy, technology ethics, and environmental and labour market standards. Many non-state actors – including industry alliances, ethical boards, rating agencies and benchmarking agencies – have gained influence as key architects of industry norms and standards. Without clear regulatory standards to level the playing field, firms increasingly use compliance and disclosure as tools for reputational and competitive differentiation. Yet, the use of speculative practices and green-, ethics- and ESG-washing has risen too. Major economies with mature talent, finance and innovation ecosystems are set to benefit from renewed dynamism. Developing economies also stand to benefit from increased talent mobility, capital and innovation flows, lengthened supply chains and expanded market opportunities. However, widespread deregulation is already giving rise to longer-term risks, including industry overreach, resource degradation, local market disruptions and mounting environmental and social externalities. Competitive intensity has raised the stakes for slower-moving economies, businesses and workers – deepening their exclusion from fast- paced, high-growth markets. Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 18

Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025