Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025

Views converge on the role of geopolitical division and increased restrictions on global trade and investment, with almost equal shares of respondents expecting them to have an impact across both segments. Cost inflections and efficiency gains are set to support a rapid expansion of clean energy solutions in the coming years, with more than 560 gigawatts (GWs) of new renewable capacity added in 2023 alone.91 Solar and onshore wind have already become more cost-effective than gas-fired power generation in most regions, with costs falling to $0.044 per kilowatt hour (/kWh) and $0.033/kWh, respectively.92 The pace of the green transition is likely to further accelerate in scenarios characterized by high regulatory stringency – particularly where policy-makers harness geopolitical stability and smart regulation to support green technologies and infrastructure. By contrast, in scenarios with looser regulatory environments, the sector is set to capitalize on market dynamism. However, if green markets lack maturity, these scenarios risk undermining progress on global decarbonization. The sector’s geographic concentration and reliance on cross-border flows expose it to geopolitical chokepoints, policy fragmentation and price volatility. The escalation of tensions in the Red Sea, for example, caused an over 50% contraction in oil transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait,93 with insurance costs more than doubling to 2% of hull value by September 2024.94 Exposure to sanctions is also likely to increase costs and risks for fossil fuel segments in scenarios characterized by geopolitical friction and regulatory weaponization. Geopolitical risks weigh on green energy segments, too – particularly through access to critical technologies, materials and infrastructure. Export restrictions on critical raw materials increased more than fivefold between 2009 and 2023, with the rate of growth nearly doubling in 2023 alone.95 The mining and refining of key inputs – such as lithium, cobalt and rare earths – are highly concentrated geographically, notably in China, creating structural risks for green technology supply chains in high-friction scenarios. More than half of mining industry employers expect increased restriction on global trade and investment to be a key driver of transformation in the next five years, and only slightly fewer said the same about geopolitical division and conflicts (see Figure 5). Export restrictions on critical raw materials increased more than fivefold between 2009 and 2023, with the rate of growth nearly doubling in 2023 alone. Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 24