Information technology and digital communications The information technology and digital communications sector plays a foundational role in driving technological progress and enabling future competitiveness. Digitally delivered services already account for nearly 14.5% of global exports79 and continue to grow at more than twice the pace of trade in goods. In 2024, the exports of digital services reached 4.6 trillion,80 representing a year-on-year increase of more than 8%. This momentum is poised to continue, with global spending on digital transformation expected to reach $4 trillion by 2027.81 While the sector’s dynamism and digital nature support its competitiveness, its deep interconnectedness – particularly its reliance on cross-border flows of data and talent – also heightens exposure to geopolitical and regulatory risks. Global data breach costs rose to nearly $4.9 million per incident in 2024, marking a 10% year-on- year increase.82 Network chokepoints are multiplying, driven in part by undersea cable damage incidents near Taiwan, China and in the Baltic and Red Seas. Meanwhile, intensifying technological competition between the US, China and the EU is set to increase the exposure of the sector in the coming years. Regulatory constraints are also tightening. The OECD Digital Services Trade Restrictiveness Index has increased by nearly 25% since 2014, reflecting growing frictions in connectivity and infrastructure.83 Meanwhile, the number of data localization measures has nearly doubled since 2015.84 A lack of harmonized standards continues to increase the cost and complexity of cross-border digital service integration. According to one estimate, data protection compliance costs could reach nearly $5.5 million, and as much as $30 million for some industries.85 Looking ahead, business transformation in the sector is likely to be driven by slow global growth, geopolitical fragmentation and stricter anti-trust and competition policies (see Figure 5). Access to talent is also a critical determinant of future competitiveness. Nearly two-thirds of employers in the industry cite skills gaps as the single major barrier to transformation.86 In response, companies are increasingly outsourcing IT services to improve access to talent and cost-efficiency. These shifts are poised to reshape the geography of the sector. In 2024, exports of computer services from emerging economies significantly outpaced those from advanced economies. For example, export growth reached more than 60% in Indonesia and 42% in Peru, compared to just 14% and 15% for the EU and US, respectively.87 Energy and materials The competitiveness of the energy and materials sector is shaped by a complex mix of accelerating green transition, continuing reliance on fossil fuels and deepening resource nationalism. Global energy investment is projected to reach $3 trillion, with two- thirds directed towards clean energy.88 Demand for oil, gas and coal has grown slowly but is projected to peak before 2030.89 According to the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Survey 2024,90 the sector’s oil and gas segments are likely to face higher exposure to global economic conditions in the next five years. Nearly half of respondents cite slower economic growth as a major driver of transformation in these areas, while 40% expect subsidies and industrial policies to play a role. By contrast, less than a third expect energy technology segments to be affected by these developments. Global spending on digital transformation is expected to reach $4 trillion by 2027. 23 Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030

Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025