Supply chains and transport services The supply chains and transport services sector is the lifeblood of the global economy, with trade accounting for nearly 60% of global GDP .65 Despite a recent uptick in protectionist measures, global trade flows remain resilient. Transport services recorded 8% growth in 2024,66 and global container trade is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.2% between 2025 and 2028.67 This outlook underscores the sector’s centrality to global value chains, where lead times, cost structures and resilience cascade across other industries. At the same time, the sector is highly exposed to geopolitical and regulatory developments. According to the World Economic Forum’s latest survey of executives, more than 40% of leaders in the sector expect geopolitical division and slower growth to drive transformation in the next five years (see Figure 5). Disruptions to strategic trade routes have intensified due to geopolitical volatility and conflict. For example, escalating tensions in the Red Sea have forced the rerouting of maritime traffic, adding up to 10 days and nearly $1 million in extra fuel for a one-way Asia-Europe journey.68 In response to a 60% drop in Suez Canal revenue in 2024,69 transit fees have been temporarily discounted by 15% as of May 2025.70 Recent tariff announcements in the US have also sent ripple effects through the sector. Major US ports recorded an average 10% drop in exports between February and May 2025, with the Port of Portland recording a 50% decline.71 Meanwhile, the suspension of “de minimis” exceptions for low-value goods has contributed to a nearly one- third reduction in US-China air freight capacity.72 This high exposure to global headwinds suggests the sector’s performance could be vulnerable in conditions of sustained volatility, as in the Fortress Economics and Survival of the Fastest scenarios. Regulatory tightening, particularly related to sustainability, is also placing further pressure on costs and competitiveness in the sector. The EU Emissions Trading System alone could increase existing surcharges by up to 90% in 2025.73 In addition, firms are under pressure to upgrade fleets, adopt new fuels and modernize technologies to meet decarbonization targets. As such, an estimated $1.4 trillion will be required by 2050 to meet International Maritime Organization targets.74 However, this could also be a significant driver of growth momentum, with nearly 93% of logistics companies looking to include sustainable and green logistics capabilities in their broader service offerings.75 Technology is becoming an increasingly critical differentiator in the sector. According to Accenture, nearly three-quarters of executives believe the sector lags in digitalization maturity.76 However, momentum is building – nearly eight in 10 logistics companies report plans to invest in robotics and integrate IoT for optimization.77 Predictive analytics, AI, IoT and blockchain are poised to increase efficiency in the coming years. The global market for digital twins is projected to reach $240.3 billion by 2035, up from $12.8 billion in 2024.78 More than 40% of employers in the sector expect geopolitical division and slower growth to drive transformation in the next five years. Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 22

Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025