Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025

3.2 Implications across selected industries Manufacturing The performance of the manufacturing sector is being shaped by diverging trajectories for globalization and protectionism. Access to critical inputs, exposure to trade friction, tariff costs and management of carbon footprints are moving to centre stage as regulators and investors pivot from cost-driven strategies to a focus on resilience and sustainability. With manufacturing accounting for nearly 15% of global GDP57 and 40% of FDI inward flows,58 its economic weight and capital intensity position it as a critical driver of global economic activity. However, they also expose it to regulatory and geopolitical shifts. According to the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Survey 2024, more than two-thirds of employers in the sector expect geopolitical division, slower economic growth and increased restrictions on trade and investment to drive transformation in the coming years (see Figure 5). The automotive and aerospace segments appear particularly exposed, with more than half of respondents citing geopolitical division as a key driver of change.59 Subsidies and industrial policy are also expected to play a role, particularly in advanced manufacturing.60 The future of competitiveness in the sector will depend heavily on firms’ ability to orchestrate resilient, efficient and multi-regional supply chains, access talent and integrate advanced technologies. As of 2025, regional concentration remains high, with Asia and Oceania accounting for more than half of global manufacturing value added and continuing to grow above the global average.61 However, recent waves of protectionist policies and accelerating automation are likely to reshape the geography of manufacturing in the coming years. High-technology segments – such as semiconductors and biotechnology equipment – are particularly affected by tightening export controls and innovation regimes.62 Other advanced manufacturing segments – including steel, cement and automotives – face rising tariff costs and growing sustainability scrutiny. Regulatory initiatives like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism are likely to increase compliance costs across the sector.63 Several economies – including Mexico, Viet Nam and India – have benefited from global trade restructuring and nearshoring and friend-shoring supply chain strategies in recent years.64 The trade disruption of early 2025 is likely to rewire future localization strategies if higher tariffs become entrenched. Strategic complexity is set to increase further in scenarios shaped by geopolitical and regulatory instability, with shifting fault lines redefining patterns of global economic activity. Global geoeconomic and regulatory trends driving transformation in the next five years FIGURE 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Share of respondents (%)Slower economic growth Increased restrictions to global trade and investmentIncreased geopolitical division and conflicts Stricter anti-trust and competition regulations Increased government subsidies and industrial policy Energy and materialsAverage Agriculture, forestry and fishing Manufacturing IT and digital communications Mining (excluding fossil fuels) Energy and materialsIT and digital communications Agriculture, forestry and fishing Manufacturing Mining (excluding fossil fuels) ManufacturingSupply chain and transport services Financial, professional, real estate services Engineering construction and utilities Supply chain and transport services Mining (excluding fossil fuels) Retail and wholesale of consumer goods Energy and materialsIT and digital communications IT and digital communications Manufacturing Financial, professional, real estate services Agriculture, forestry and fishing Source: World Economic Forum. Future of Jobs Survey 2024. Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 21