Note: Factors considered in the analysis include indicators of industries’ 1. reliance on foreign workers, 2. FDI intensity, 3. export intensity, 4. vulnerability to cross-border technology restrictions, 5. domestic value added, 6. intensity of government support, 7. regulatory maturity, 8. firms churn rate, and 9. profit margin. Orange = higher potential headwinds for sectoral output and competitiveness; Green = higher potential tailwinds for sectoral output and competitiveness; Yellow = uncertain or inconclusive impact. See Appendix A1 for further details on methodology and data. Sources: World Economic and Accenture analysis based on data from: ILO, UNCTAD, United Nations Statistics Division, World Bank, OECD, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, Global Trade Alert, ISO, S&P Capital IQ, Eurostat and national statistical offices. Industry exposure, by scenario TABLE 1 Headwinds Tailwinds Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Fortress EconomicsNegotiated OrderSurvival of the FastestFluid Order Agriculture, forestry and fishing Education Energy and materials Engineering, construction and utilities Financial, professional, real estate services Information technology and digital communications Leisure and travel Manufacturing Medical, healthcare and care services Mining (excluding fossil fuels) Retail and wholesale of consumer goods Supply chain and transport services Several high-level patterns emerge from this analysis. All sectors are poised to experience tailwinds from the regulatory easing and geopolitical stability that characterize the Fluid Order scenario. By contrast, the heightened geopolitical volatility in both the Fortress Economics and Survival of the Fastest scenarios is likely to generate broad- based headwinds, though the degree of exposure varies by sector. Sectors with a strong regulatory baseline and a high degree of domestic orientation – including education, medical, healthcare and care services, engineering, construction and utilities, and agriculture, forestry and fishing – appear somewhat more resilient to fragmentation and regulatory risks compared to other sectors. Conversely, sectors that rely on physical cross- border flows – e.g. manufacturing, mining, supply chains and transport services, retail, energy and materials, leisure and travel – are more exposed to disruption in scenarios marked by geopolitical volatility, particularly where regulation and economic policy are used as tools for strategic competition. However, sectors with high strategic importance and strong government support – like energy and materials and some manufacturing segments – may benefit from insulation and support in more volatile scenarios, and from stronger incentives and capital support in more stable ones. For example, clear regulatory guidance on sustainability standards and decarbonization incentives can create growth and transformation opportunities in sectors such as energy and materials and construction. Digitally-driven and asset-light sectors – such as information technology and digital communications and financial, professional and real estate services – face varying exposure across the scenarios. On the one hand, a high degree of virtualization may shield them from disruption to trade and supply chains. On the other hand, they may face headwinds related to the fragmentation of virtual flows or poor regulatory calibration, particularly in data- and innovation-heavy segments. The remainder of this chapter explores exposure in greater detail for four selected sectors, analysing how their current structural features might interact with the forces described in the scenarios. Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 20

Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025