Global Economic Futures Competitiveness in 2030 2025

Appendices A1 Methodology The industry implications analysis in Chapter 3 evaluates the exposure of 12 sectors to the regulatory and geopolitical trends outlined in the four scenarios in Chapter 2. This evaluation results in an “industry impact matrix” visualized as a heat map, which provides a high-level snapshot of potential headwinds and tailwinds for sectoral output and competitiveness for each scenario. The analysis also draws on qualitative consultations with senior industry executives to contextualize the findings. The industry impact matrix was constructed using a three-step process: 1 Dimension and indicator selection Nine dimensions, reflecting enabling and constraining factors within the scenarios, were chosen to capture key aspects of industry performance influenced by regulatory and geopolitical dynamics. These dimensions, along with their rationale and the indicators used to measure them across the 12 sectors, are summarized in Table 4. Min-max normalization was applied to convert all indicator values into a unitless score between 0 and 1.2 Dimension-scenario coefficients Each dimension was assigned a multiplier coefficient ranging from – 1 to 1 for each of the scenarios, reflecting the expected direction and intensity of correlation between the dimension and business performance in that scenario (see Table 3). For example, the multiplier coefficient of “1” for the share of foreign workers dimension in the Fortress Economics scenario represents a strong negative correlation between industries’ reliance on foreign workers and their performance in the future shaped by high regulatory stringency and high geopolitical volatility.3 Aggregation Normalized indicator values for each sector were multiplied by the dimension scenario coefficients. The summed results for each sector were then categorized according to the following thresholds to produce the heat map presented in Table 1 in Chapter 3. >1 Higher potential tailwinds 0.25 to 1 Potential tailwinds -0.25 to 0.25 Uncertain or inconclusive impact -1 to -0.25 Potential headwinds <-1 Higher potential headwinds Direction and degree of indicator correlation with industry performance across scenarios TABLE 3 DimensionFortress EconomicsNegotiated OrderSurvival of the FastestFluid Order Reliance on foreign workers -1 -0.5 -0.5 1 FDI intensity -0.5 0.5 0.5 1 Export intensity -1 0.5 -1 1 Vulnerability to cross-border technology restrictions -1 0 -1 0.5 Domestic value added 1 0.5 0.5 0 Intensity of government support 1 0.5 0.5 0 Regulatory maturity 0.5 1 0 0.5 Firms churn rate -1 -1 0.5 0.5 Profit margin 1 0.5 1 0.5 Source: World Economic Forum and Accenture. Global Economic Futures: Competitiveness in 2030 27