Global Economic Futures Productivity in 2030 2025

In this scenario, the world has embraced the role of human-technology complementarity as a key driver of productivity growth. Economies have been reshaped by new patterns of human-technology interaction and the emergence of new industries, business models and occupations. Managers, entrepreneurs and workers who creatively apply new technologies are key enablers of faster productivity growth. The twin acceleration of technology and human capital development has succeeded in breaking the tepid growth dynamics of the preceding decades. Optimistic projections of global GDP growth reaching 4% before the end of the decade28 have materialized, outperforming mid-decade forecasts.29 The major industrial policy initiatives of the early 2020s – including the CHIPS and Science Act, Society 5.0 and others – have spurred productivity- enhancing innovation while fears about disruption to market dynamics have not come to pass. There is a shared global awareness of the benefits of knowledge and technology sharing. However, these exchanges remain constrained by geopolitical fault lines. Competition between geopolitical “blocs” has driven technological acceleration at the frontier, while stronger knowledge and talent flows within those blocs have led to broad-based progress. Global technology spending has surged, and corporate R&D spending has accelerated from an annual average growth of 10% in 2017-2023.30 These investments have driven innovation, increased adoption of advanced technologies and shortened timelines for the commercialization of vanguard technologies such as quantum computing. Sustainability concerns are ever more acute as technological advances drive demand for critical resources. Lower costs of technology adoption have enabled a broader diffusion of less cutting-edge innovation, unlocking additional productivity gains. With nearly 22% of tasks already performed by technology,31 the demand for workers with social, emotional and digital skills has increased.32 Learning ecosystems have been transformed to keep up with evolving needs, with governments and businesses increasing education spending and partnering with educational institutions. The skilled workforce has expanded, and skills transferability and augmentation have increased. However, the relentless pace of technological development means that some workers still face high risks of automation, displacement and income stagnation. Although broad-based, productivity benefits are not equally distributed in this scenario, with initial gains being strongest in businesses close to the technological frontier or with capital to integrate technological advances with human ingenuity.33 Advanced economies have been the main early beneficiaries due to higher technology adoption, attractiveness to talent and capital availability. Many emerging economies have gained from access to technology, younger talent and dynamic industries. However, less agile economies risk falling behind as the twin acceleration increases fiscal pressures and the economic and social costs of inaction.2.2 Four futures for productivity in 2030 Note: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. Acceleration of technological and human capital developmentA virtuous circle between widespread disruptive innovation and rapid human capital development leads to significant and broad-based productivity gains and a marked improvement in living standards. GDP growth, % annual Baseline: 2.7% (IMF, 2019-2024 average) Labour productivity growth (GDP per worker), % annual Baseline: 1.2% (ILO, 2019-2024 average) Total factor productivity growth, % annual Baseline: 0.7% (The Conference Board, 2024) Advanced technology adoption rate, % Baseline: 15% (based on WIPO 2022-2023, Accenture 2023, Acemoglu et al. 2022) Total R&D spending (public and private), % of GDP Baseline: 2.6% (World Bank, 2021) Share of business tasks performed by technology, % Baseline: 22% (World Economic Forum, 2025) Public spending on workforce training, % of GDP Baseline: 0.11% (OECD, 2021) Skills mismatch, % of over and underqualified employment Baseline: 46% (OECD, ILO, 2021)Scenario 1: Productivity Leap Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 13