In this scenario, a growing mismatch between new technological capabilities and workforce readiness has emerged. Automation dominates key sectors, businesses invest heavily in cutting-edge technologies to mitigate talent shortages, cut costs and stay competitive. While automation has led to significant economic gains, this has not translated into improved living standards, instead contributing to new social and economic frictions. The global economy is more productive overall, driven by technology hubs and sectors that attract a shrinking pool of highly skilled workers. However, this has led to widening global divergences, with many countries grappling with outdated skills, underemployment and inequality. Sustainability concerns are also mounting as automation creates new demand for energy and critical technology components. This future reflects an intensification of winner-takes- all dynamics, which have been strengthening since the turn of the century. The global economic and geopolitical fractures of the mid-2020s accelerated this trend, leading to antagonistic industrial policies and slower diffusion of technology. Inputs such as capital and critical materials have become increasingly concentrated in frontier firms and innovation hubs, with private finance pouring into advanced technologies at historic rates. This has accelerated technological breakthroughs and enabled industries to transition to fully autonomous operations, such as “lights-off” factories.34 The ICT sector now accounts for a significantly greater share of economic activity, while the value of trade in digitally delivered services has surged from the $3.8 trillion recorded in 2022.35 Meanwhile, services and industries that rely on manual labour risk being marginalized.These advances have primarily replaced rather than augmented human labour, with displacement due to automation significantly surpassing the earlier estimates.36 Despite significant investment in education and training programmes through the 2020s, the global educational ecosystem has not been able to adapt to meet the rapidly changing needs of a transformed technological landscape. More than half of the global population lacks relevant skills. With automation eliminating most repetitive and routine tasks, a large share of the workforce has either been relegated to low-wage, low-skill, low-quality jobs or else displaced entirely. Although AI and automation have filled many gaps in the labour market, a lack of creative, agile and entrepreneurial talent hampers innovation and growth. Demographic trends exacerbate human capital challenges. In most advanced economies, ageing has contributed to talent shortages, driving further automation.37 The growth of the cross-border digital workforce has been limited by global skills gaps and restrictive migration and labour market policies aimed at protecting domestic jobs. The benefits of technology-enabled productivity have not been broadly shared, and inequality has grown. Governments face mounting social and economic costs as automation disrupts competition, squeezes out businesses and threatens entire communities and regions. Many developing economies, in particular, risk falling further behind as they struggle to attract financial and human capital for technological leapfrogging or wider deployment of the available technologies.Note: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. GDP growth, % annual Baseline: 2.7% (IMF, 2019-2024 average) Labour productivity growth (GDP per worker), % annual Baseline: 1.2% (ILO, 2019-2024 average) Total factor productivity growth, % annual Baseline: 0.7% (The Conference Board, 2024) Advanced technology adoption rate, % Baseline: 15% (based on WIPO 2022-2023, Accenture 2023, Acemoglu et al. 2022) Total R&D spending (public and private), % of GDP Baseline: 2.6% (World Bank, 2021) Share of business tasks performed by technology, % Baseline: 22% (World Economic Forum, 2025) Public spending on workforce training, % of GDP Baseline: 0.11% (OECD, 2021) Skills mismatch, % of over and underqualified employment Baseline: 46% (OECD, ILO, 2021) Acceleration of technological development, slowdown of human capital developmentTechnological advancements outpace human capital development, leading to a “winner-takes-all” dynamic and an economy characterized by increased concentration of wealth and power. Productivity gaps widen between leading and lagging firms, sectors and regions.Scenario 2: Automation Overload Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 14

Global Economic Futures Productivity in 2030 2025