Global Economic Futures Productivity in 2030 2025

In this scenario, a slowdown in technological development has put human capabilities at the centre of productivity growth. Businesses now compete on their ability to harness human talent at all organizational levels. A strong consensus has emerged around the need for a human-centric economy, with governments and businesses focusing on using technology to augment rather than replace workers. Productivity growth is uneven. While some firms and economies have harnessed improved human capital to build stronger growth foundations, global GDP38 and labour productivity growth39 rates have stabilized not far above their mid-2020s levels. Concerns over societal and national-security risks from unrestrained technological development have led to more stringent regulation, slowing frontier innovation. Automation has slowed, high-return technology opportunities have dried up, and AI investment has yet to reach the $200 billion mark that had been projected for the mid-2020s.40 Nevertheless, the absorption of earlier technological breakthroughs continues to generate benefits. The acceleration of human capital development has enabled a wider and more productive use of existing technologies. The improved affordability and accessibility of existing technologies have become a critical driver of progress for many economies, even as geopolitical tensions constrain the diffusion of new innovations. Governments have become increasingly focused on maximizing human capital potential. By 2030, education systems and policies in most major economies have been overhauled to support more human-centric economies. The education sector has seen significant growth as public-private cooperation has sought to align curricula with business needs to drive human-driven competitiveness. Global competition for talent has intensified, with highly skilled workers gaining increased negotiating power. Hybrid and remote working have surged, and job quality has become a focal point. While top global talent enjoys wage premia and improved working conditions, labour market polarization persists and many routine jobs in sectors such as manufacturing, retail and services remain vulnerable to automation and wage stagnation. Inequality patterns show potential signs of narrowing as human capital improvements unlock wider prosperity benefits. Countries that invested heavily in reskilling and upskilling have positioned themselves as global hubs for high-skill outsourcing. Advanced economies that combined strong education, lifelong learning and labour policies have partially mitigated productivity slowdowns linked to ageing populations.41 Many developing economies with untapped human capital have also benefited from the increased mobility of skilled workers and global demand for expertise. Despite many attempts, global efforts to establish a common framework for human capital development have fallen short. Divergent approaches to labour and talent regulations have increased the risks of localized unemployment and wage polarization. Many economies have prioritized domestic job and talent protection, amplifying regional disparities. GDP growth, % annual Baseline: 2.7% (IMF, 2019-2024 average) Labour productivity growth (GDP per worker), % annual Baseline: 1.2% (ILO, 2019-2024 average) Total factor productivity growth, % annual Baseline: 0.7% (The Conference Board, 2024) Advanced technology adoption rate, % Baseline: 15% (based on WIPO 2022-2023, Accenture 2023, Acemoglu et al. 2022) Total R&D spending (public and private), % of GDP Baseline: 2.6% (World Bank, 2021) Share of business tasks performed by technology, % Baseline: 22% (World Economic Forum, 2025) Public spending on workforce training, % of GDP Baseline: 0.11% (OECD, 2021) Skills mismatch, % of over and underqualified employment Baseline: 46% (OECD, ILO, 2021) Note: The arrows denote a directional change in a given scenario characteristic. The analysis is based on scenario narratives and extrapolations from similar existing research. The directionality is illustrative and for scenario-building purposes only. Slowdown of technological development, acceleration of human capital developmentHuman capital development outpaces technological advancement, centring economic activity on people. Productivity growth is slow and uneven, driven more by the creative use of existing technologies than breakthroughs. Productivity gains hinge on the ability to attract talent that can maximize the potential of technology.Scenario 3: Human Advantage Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 15