Global Economic Futures Productivity in 2030 2025

Appendices A1 Methodology The industry implications analysis in Chapter 3 evaluates the exposure of 12 sectors to the human capital, technology and productivity trends outlined in the four scenarios in Chapter 2. This evaluation results in an “industry impact matrix” visualized as a heat map that provides a high-level snapshot of potential headwinds and tailwinds for sectoral output and profitability for each scenario. The analysis also incorporated qualitative consultations with subject-matter experts to validate and contextualise the findings. The industry impact matrix was constructed using a three-step process: 1 Dimension and indicator selection Seven dimensions, reflecting enabling and constraining factors within the scenarios, were chosen to capture key aspects of industry performance influenced by technological and human capital dynamics. These dimensions, along with their rationale and the indicators used to measure them across the 12 sectors, are summarized in Table 4. Range-based normalization was applied to convert all indicator values into a unitless score between 0 and 1.2 Dimension-scenario coefficients Each dimension was assigned a multiplier coefficient ranging from -1 to 1 for each of the scenarios, reflecting the expected direction and intensity of correlation between the dimension and business performance in that scenario (see Table 3). For example, the multiplier coefficient of “1” for the “Skills development efforts” dimension in the Human Advantage scenario represents strong positive correlation between industries’ skills development efforts and their performance in the future shaped by human-centric business models and high competition for talent. 3 Aggregation Normalized indicator values for each sector were multiplied by the dimension-scenario coefficients. The summed results for each sector were then categorized according to the following thresholds to produce the heat map presented in Table 1 in Chapter 3. >1 Higher potential tailwinds 0.25 to 1 Potential tailwinds -0.25 to 0.25 Uncertain or inconclusive impact -1 to -0.25 Potential headwinds <-1 Higher potential headwinds Direction and degree of indicator correlation with industry performance across scenarios TABLE 3 DimensionProductivity LeapAutomation OverloadHuman AdvantageProductivity Drought Potential for automation and augmentation 1 1 0.5 0.5 Reliance on skilled workers 1 -0.5 0.5 -1 Skills development efforts 1 0.5 1 0.5 Corporate R&D intensity 1 0.5 0.5 -0.5 Vulnerability to cross-border technology restrictions 0.5 -0.5 -1 -1 Revenue uplift from AI adoption 1 0.5 0 -0.5 Shortage of investment capital -1 -1 0 -0.5 Source: World Economic Forum and Accenture. Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030 25