"Geopolitical recession" 1.3 2% 14% 16% 23% 19% 19% 7%Short-term (2 years) risk severity score: State-based armed conﬂict FIGURE 1.9 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025 2-year rank: 3rdBilateral or multilateral use of force between states and/or between a state and non-state actor(s), often with ideological, political, or religious goals, manifesting as war and/or organized, sustained violence. Includes, but is not limited to: hot wars; proxy wars; civil wars; guerilla warfare; terrorism; genocide; and assassinations. 2-year average risk severity score: 4.6 7 High Low 6 5 4 3 2 1Severity NoteSeverity was assessed on a 1-7 Likert scale[1 = Low severity, 7 = High severity]. The percentages in the graphs may not add up to 100% because values havebeen rounded up/down.2 years – Over the next two years, uncertainty around the course of curr ent conflicts and their aftermath is likely to remain high, and tensions elsewhere could escalate. – A loss of support for and faith in the role of inter national organizations in conflict prevention and resolution has opened the door to more unilateralist moves. – Humanitarian crises are multiplying and worsening, given funding constraints and major powers’ lack of sustained focus on them. State-based armed conflict (pr oxy wars, civil wars, coups, terrorism, etc.) was highlighted as by far the greatest risk for 2025 among the 33 risks ranked in the GRPS, with 23% of respondents anticipating a material global crisis. GRPS respondents cite Geoeconomic confrontation as well as the technology-related concerns Cyber espionage and warfare and Misinformation and disinformation among the risks most closely linked to State-based armed conflict (Figure 1.10). Concern about this risk among respondents remains alarming on a two-year horizon, with State-based armed conflict ranked #3, increasing two positions from last year’s risk ranking. In the EOS, Armed conflict – encompassing interstate, intrastate, proxy wars and coups – is identified as one of the top 10 global risks over the next two years. According to the EOS, this geopolitical risk ranks as the primary concern for executives in 12 countries, including Armenia, Israel, Kazakhstan and Poland, and features among the top five risks in an additional 11 economies, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia (Figure 1.11). Executives who prioritize this risk according to the EOS frequently cite a high perception of related risks, including Biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons or hazards and Geoeconomic confrontation. The top ranking of State-based armed conflict may also demonstrate concern among respondents that we are in what has been termed a “geopolitical recession” 7 – an era characterized by a high Anzhela Bets, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2025 20