Global Risks Report 2025

Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms Erosion of human rights and/or civic freedoms Global risk interconnections: State-based armed conflict FIGURE 1.10 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025.Edges Relative influence High LowMediumRisk influenceNodes High LowMediumReference Biological, chemical or nuclear weapons or hazards Cyber espionage and warfare Decline in health and well-being Disruptions to a systemically important supply chainDisruptions to critical infrastructure Geoeconomic confrontationInvoluntary migration or displacementMisinformation and disinformation State-based armed con/f_lict Biological, chemical or nuclear weapons or hazards Cyber espionage and warfare Decline in health and well-being Disruptions to a systemically important supply chain Disruptions to critical infrastructure Geoeconomic confrontation Involuntary migration or displacement Misinformation and disinformation State-based armed conflict Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological number of conflicts, in which multilateralism is facing strong headwinds. It can also be argued that such a geopolitical recession started almost a decade ago (see Figure 1.12). Since 2014, the number of armed conflicts has been elevated compared to the period from the 1990s to the early 2010s. Interstate conflicts, while they tend to present the greatest threats to global stability, only constitute a small proportion of the total number of armed conflicts, which also include one-sided, non- state and intrastate armed conflicts. Escalation pathways The GRPS results are also likely to reflect the depth of respondents’ fears surrounding the two major current cross-border conflicts, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, and perhaps also concern around the risks of conflict over Taiwan, China. Regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the position taken by the new US administration will be critical to its evolution. Will the United States take a firmer stance towards Russia, counting on such a move acting as a deterrent to further Russian escalation, and/or will it increase pressure on Ukraine, including reducing financial support? In the latter case, European governments might increase their own support for Ukraine. The spectrum of possible outcomes over the next two years is wide, ranging from further escalation, perhaps also involving neighbouring countries, to uneasy agreement to freeze the conflict. In the Middle East, any shift towards a full-scale Iran-Israel war over the next two years would draw in the United States further. Such a war would, in turn, generate more long-term instability in the entire region, including the Gulf economies, where US military bases could become targets. Meanwhile, recent political developments in Syria raise both opportunities and risks. Hopes are high that there could be a revitalization of the economy and a more inclusive political environment. However, building stability across Syria will be challenging, given the many competing interests that are involved. These include both domestic groups and foreign states; if other countries decide to intervene more heavily while the transition unfolds, this could lead to renewed confrontations. In addition, conflict over Taiwan, China cannot be ruled out. Limited armed confrontation could be triggered more easily if global tensions are high around geoeconomic confrontation and if rhetoric Global Risks Report 2025 21