One-sided violence Interstate Non-state conﬂict Intrastate 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0Number of armed conﬂicts since the end of the Cold War (1989-2023) FIGURE 1.12 Source The Uppsala Conﬂict Data Program (UCDP). 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 investments, placing at risk spending in areas such as healthcare, education and infrastructure. This accelerating military spending would represent a continuation of recent trends: World military expenditure increased for the ninth consecutive year in 2023, reaching a total of $2.4 trillion,11 with 2023 seeing a steep rise over 2022 (see Figure 1.13). The top five countries accounted for 61% of the total. As governments with strengthening militaries perceive that multilateral constraints on unilateral military action are weaker, there could be more instances of cross-border military interventions in the coming years. Unilateralism and the dominance of national security considerations in political agendas may also have increasingly far-reaching repercussions for state-society relations worldwide. Increased state surveillance of citizens and restrictions on individual freedoms may become more commonplace in the name of national security. Perceived or actual threats from other countries also provide an opening for governments to seize control of narratives and suppress information, perhaps blurring the lines between genuine security considerations and political expedience. Governments may take measures that diminish the transparency of public expenditure, for example when it comes to funding parties to a conflict abroad. These are all conditions that will help authoritarian regimes consolidate their power and may lead to democratic regimes taking on more authoritarian characteristics. Salah Darwish, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2025 23