2,500 2,000 1,500 5001,000 0 World military expenditure (billion $), 1992-2023 FIGURE 1.13 Source Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Military Expenditure Database.NoteValues are in billion $ at constant 2022 prices and exchange rates.19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023 Worsening humanitarian crises Even beyond global security considerations, multilateralism appears set to endure its most difficult period since the founding of the UN in 1945. Over the next two years, more questions are likely to be asked by national governments about the roles and priorities of key multilateral institutions, and there could be constraints placed on their funding. The outlook for this broader weakening of multilateralism is associated with declining global budgets for humanitarian aid (see Figure 1.14). Declining funding translates into an acute risk of humanitarian crises deepening. Global humanitarian efforts are highly dependent on the financial and human resources and institutional know-how provided by the UN. This know-how, in areas such as logistics or relationships with local governments and NGOs, has been built up over decades and is irreplaceable over a short- or even medium-term time horizon. Over 90 million people in need receive humanitarian aid or development assistance from UN institutions on an annual basis. 12 A rising number of these individuals, as well as others who also need support but are unable to access it, will be at increasing risk of insecurity, disease, malnutrition and starvation over the next two years if UN institutions and the humanitarian sector overall are weakened further. Furthermore, higher levels of desperation will in some settings create more opportunities for armed groups to recruit. Countries in which serious humanitarian crises risk deepening further over the next two years and in turn fueling more violence include Sudan, Mali and Haiti. In Sudan, the domestic and regional impacts of reduced agricultural production and exports are already far-reaching. Like Ukraine, Sudan is a large exporter of agricultural products. It plays a critical role for neighbouring countries Ethiopia, South Sudan, Chad and Egypt. 13 Forced displacement is also set to rise as international humanitarian aid efforts struggle to keep up. It is already at an all-time high, with over 122 million forcibly displaced people globally, 14 and 56% are displaced within their own countries. Among the 44% who are cross-border refugees, three quarters are hosted in low-income countries that have limited resources to support them. Sometimes refugees are confronted with nationalist sentiment or identity-related violence because of their ethnicity or religion, further fueling the potential for conflict in border areas. Increased competition Global Risks Report 2025 24