Super-ageing societies 2.5 –Pension crises will start to bite over the next decade in super-ageing societies as dependency ratios rise further and government finances are stretched. –Labour shortages in several sectors, in particular long-term care, are likely to become a characteristic of super-ageing societies unless policies shift. –Super-ageing societies will pose global economic and labour-market challenges, even for countries still benefiting from their demographic dividend. Countries are termed “super-ageing” or “super- aged” when over 20% of their populations are over 65 years old.68 Several countries have already exceeded that mark, led by Japan69 and including some countries in Europe.70 Many more countries across Europe and Eastern Asia in particular are projected do so by 2035. Globally, the number of people aged 65 and older is expected to increase by 36%, from 857 million in 2025 to 1.2 billion in 2035.71 By 2035, populations in super-ageing societies could be experiencing a set of interconnected and cascading risks that underscore the GRPS finding that the severity – albeit not the ranking – of the risk of Insufficient public infrastructure and social protections is expected to rise from the two-year to the 10-year time horizon (Figure 2.13). An ongoing concern is that government funding for public infrastructure and social protections gets diverted during short-term crises. Some super-ageing societies could be facing crises in their state pensions systems as well as in employer and private pensions, leading to more financial insecurity in old age and exacerbated pressure on the labour force, which includes a growing number of unpaid caregivers. Indeed, super-ageing societies by 2035 are likely to face labour shortages. Ranked second globally according to the EOS, Labour and talent shortage is selected as the top risk in Europe and Eastern Asia, where super- ageing is most pronounced. Twenty-one countries place the risk in first place, including two of the most super-ageing societies, Japan and Germany, while 40 other economies view it as one of the top five risks (Figure 2.14). The long-term care sector will be especially affected by labour shortage. Care occupations are expected to see significant demand growth globally by 2030. Care systems – health care and social care – in super-ageing societies are already under clear and immediate strain. They will struggle to serve a fast-growing population over 60 years of age that has additional care needs while recruiting and retaining enough care workers. Care systems are, in great part, funded by governments and account for about 381 million jobs globally – 11.5% of total employment.72 The accumulation of debt 2%Short- (2 years) and long-term (10 years) risk severity score: Insufﬁcient public infrastructure and social protectionsFIGURE 2.13 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025. 10-year rank: 24thNon-existent, inadequate, or inequitable public infrastructure, services and social protections. Includes, but is not limited to: unaffordable or inadequate social security and beneﬁts; housing; public education; child and elderly care; healthcare; sanitation and transportation systems; and pension systems. 10-year average risk severity score: 4.5 7 High Low 6 5 4 3 2 1Severity Proportion of respondents Note Severity was assessed on a 1-7 Likert scale [1 = Low severity, 7 = High severity]. The percentages in the graphs may not add up to 100% because values have been rounded up/down.2 years 10 years5% 12% 15% 22% 23% 18% 8%4% 8% 17% 25% 26% 16% Global Risks Report 2025 60