Long-term care crunch In super-ageing societies, the balance between public sector, private sector and family support in the provision of long-term care is varied. The predominant case globally is that government healthcare and social services, and other government financial assistance for retirees, play important roles.79 In high-income countries with less of a contribution by the public sector, more of a role is played by private insurance, private care facilities, and home care services.80 Given the rising demand for its services, the care sector overall is set to need many more workers by 2035. In the United States, for example, demand for long-term care services and support workers alone is projected to grow by 44% from 2020-2035.81 This rising demand needs to be set against an environment in which staff are often underpaid and overworked. Unless long-term care providers can find ways to improve pay and working conditions, the risk of labour shortages in the sector will only rise. Market forces can lead to more private-sector provision of long-term care filling some of the void. However, for many families, paying for private long-term care will remain out of reach financially. Immigration into super-ageing societies is already playing a role in addressing the sector’s labour needs. However, migrant workers are overrepresented in the less regulated areas of the care economy, such as home-based care and domestic work, and earn nearly 13% less than the national average.82 The political climate around immigration is strained and may become more so over the coming years, with anti-immigration policies becoming more mainstream in several super-ageing societies. Similarly, over a 10-year timeframe, there is only so much that increased labour-force participation in super-ageing societies can contribute to addressing the long-term care crunch. Attracting more women to enter the formal workforce can play a role. However, the balance of incentives available to women needs rethinking for there to be a meaningful change in female labour-force participation. Women currently provide two-thirds of unpaid work worldwide, which keeps 708 million of them from joining the labour force.83 Without meaningful transformation of the care sector and its resourcing, the scope for either immigration or increased labour force participation to solve the long-term care crunch over the next 10 years remains limited. Governments and companies may be tempted to turn to technology in an effort to increase sectoral productivity. This can involve everything from automated reminders to take pills, to chatbots responding to medical queries and robots delivering meals, ideally freeing up time for more social interactions wherever possible. But while these and other technologies may help optimize care delivery and reach, demand for care skills and jobs is likely to be far from fully met by technological innovation Super-ageing societies of the future While today’s super-ageing societies are the ones that will feel the brunt of the negative impacts of demographic trends on their economies and societies over the next decade, ripple effects will be felt worldwide, leading to risks elsewhere, too. Global economic growth over the next decade is likely to be constrained by demographics in super- ageing societies, many of which are among the world’s largest economies. In addition, there are likely to be direct knock-on impacts from today’s super-ageing societies. Despite policy pushback on immigration in the short-medium term, in the longer term the need to fill labour shortages could be decisive in shaping policy. As a consequence, countries with more youthful populations will face the risk of depletion of their own future workforces as many more young, working-age people migrate to super-ageing societies to help fill labour shortages there. Working-age people who remain in the super- ageing societies of the future could be left hard- pressed to sustain the rest of the populations there. Celine Ylmz, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2025 63