Critical change to Earth systems Long-term, potentially irreversible and self-perpetuating changes to critical planetary systems, as a result of breaching a critical climatic or ecological threshold or ‘tipping point’, at a regional or global level. Includes, but is not limited to: sea level rise from collapsing ice sheets, carbon release from thawing permafrost, and disruption of ocean or atmospheric currents. Extreme weather events (floods, heatwaves, etc.)Loss of human life, damage to ecosystems, destruction of property and/or financial loss due to extreme weather events. Includes, but is not limited to: land-based (e.g. wildfires), water-based (e.g. floods), and atmospheric and temperature-related (e.g. heat-waves) events, including those exacerbated by climate change. Natural resource shortages (food, water)Supply shortages of food or water for human, industry or ecosystem use, manifesting as food and water insecurity at a local, regional or global level, stemming from, but not limited to: human overexploitation and mismanagement of critical natural resources, climate change (including drought and desertification), and/or a lack of suitable infrastructure. Non-weather-related natural disasters (earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, solar flares, etc.)Loss of human life, damage to ecosystems, destruction of property and/or financial loss due to non-weather-related natural disasters. Includes, but is not limited to: land-based (e.g. earthquakes, volcanos), water-based (e.g. tsunamis) and extra-terrestrial-based (e.g. asteroid strikes and geomagnetic storms) events. Pollution (air, soil, water, etc.)Introduction of harmful materials into the air, water and soil stemming from human activity, resulting in impacts to and loss of human life, financial loss and/or damage to ecosystems. Includes, but is not limited to: household and industrial activities; environmental accidents, such as oil spills; and radioactive contamination. ECONOMIC Asset bubble burst Prices for housing, investment funds, shares and other assets become increasingly disconnected from the real economy, leading to a severe drop in demand and prices. Includes, but is not limited to: cryptocurrencies, housing prices and stock markets. Concentration of strategic resources and technologies Concentration of strategically important resources (minerals, materials, technologies) among a small number of individuals, businesses or states that can control access and dictate discretionary pricing. Crime and illicit economic activity (incl. cyber)Global proliferation of organized crime or the illicit activities of businesses and individuals that undermine economic advancement and growth, facilitated on both a borderless and digital basis. Includes, but is not limited to: illicit financial flows (e.g. tax evasion, sanctions evasion and money laundering), illicit trade and trafficking (e.g. counterfeiting, human trafficking, wildlife trade and weapons), and cybercrime (including ransomware, data theft and online fraud) Debt (public, corporate, household)Corporate, household, or public finances struggle to service debt accumulation, resulting in mass bankruptcies or insolvencies, liquidity crises or defaults and sovereign debt crises. Disruptions to a systemically important supply chainMajor disruption or collapse of a systemically important global supply chain or industry with an impact on the global economy, financial markets or society leading to an abrupt shock to the supply and demand of systemically important goods and services at a global scale. Includes, but is not limited to: energy, technological hardware, medical supplies, and fast-moving consumer goods. Disruptions to critical infrastructureOverload or shutdown of physical and digital infrastructure (including satellites) or services underpinning critical systems, including the internet, telecommunications, public utilities, financial systems or energy, stemming from, but not limited to: cyberattacks, intentional or unintentional physical damage, extreme weather events, and natural disasters. Economic downturn (recession, stagnation)Near-zero or slow global growth lasting for several years or a global contraction (recession or depression). Inflation Sustained increases in the price of goods and services. Includes the potential for broad sections of the population being unable to maintain current lifestyle with declining purchasing power. Talent and/or labour shortagesGlobal, geographical or industry mismatches between labour and skills supply and demand. Global Risks Report 2025 77