Debt faultlines Total global debt (government plus private sector) stood at $251 trillion or 235% of GDP in 2024,52 and debt levels are steadily rising in both advanced economies and in emerging market and developing economies (Figure 38). Many governments are struggling to find ways to rein in their fiscal deficits in an era in which interest rates globally have risen from multi-decade lows in 2022 and spending pressures have increased. With debt- servicing costs having become significantly higher, governments are having to make increasingly painful concessions on key areas of expenditure, or consider new approaches to taxation. Several leading economies are continuing to run loose fiscal policy: the United States is pursuing a historic spending programme that is projected to raise the fiscal deficit from 5.6% of GDP in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026 and 6.0% in 2027. This will contribute to federal debt held by the public rising steadily from 100% of GDP today ($30 trillion) to 120% in 2035 ($53 trillion), exceeding the previous high of 106% set in 1946.53 Meanwhile, Germany in March 2025 amended its constitution to allow a major fiscal expansion focused on infrastructure and defence, outside of its debt brake rule.54 Pressure to expand fiscal outlays on these and other strategically critical sectors are likely to be a continuing theme across many OECD economies over the coming years, driven by risks related to state-based armed conflict and a growing sense that domestic industrial and military capacities may require substantive rebuilding in a more fragmented world. 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 20307080 6090100110120Rising gross government debt as share of GDP , 2023–2030 (projected), by income level FIGURE 38 Source IMF World Economic Outlook database, accessed 27 November 2025Advanced Economies Emerging Market and Developing EconomiesGross government debt / GDP (%) Debt (#16) has decreased one position in this year’s GRPS. However, debt across the public, corporate and household sectors is one of the most significant concerns for business leaders at the country level, according to the Executive Opinion Survey 2025 (EOS). Executives in 21 economies place this risk within their top three national threats (Figure 39). The concern is particularly acute in lower- middle-income and low-income economies, where vulnerabilities to tightening financial conditions are more pronounced. Over the next two years there is a high volume of debt that needs refinancing globally. Nearly 45% of OECD countries’ sovereign debt is maturing from 2025–2027, in part due to large new issuance during the pandemic in 2020–2021.55 On top of this significant sovereign debt refinancing need, large fiscal deficits will require substantial additional debt issuance. Austin Hervias, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2026 41