The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects 3.1% global gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2026,48 below the 2000-2019 average of 3.7%,49 but still well above recessionary levels. However, it notes that risks are tilted to the downside. Apart from fiscal issues, key areas of concern are the impacts of policy uncertainty (especially related to protectionism), labour-supply shocks,50 possible financial market corrections and the weakening of key institutions,51 including central banks. The next two years are likely to see the continuing convergence of a set of economic and financial challenges, in some cases building for decades and that seem to be accelerating. In the Global Risks Perception Survey 2025-2026 (GRPS), economic risks overall have experienced significantly sharper increases in two-year rankings than all the other risk categories – geopolitical, environmental, societal, and technological. Economic downturn (#11) and Inflation (#21) have each increased eight positions from last year and Asset bubble burst (#18) seven positions. Geoeconomic confrontation also rose by eight positions, while no other risk among the full set of 33 risks increased by more than four positions. This section examines three relatively near-term risks that could lead to an economic reckoning. An economic reckoning 2.4 13% 22% 21% 11% 24% 6% 2% 10% 17% 23% 13% 27% 8% 1% Short-term (2 years) and long-term (10 years) risk severity score distribution: Economic downturn, 2026–2028FIGURE 37 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2025-2026Near-zero or slow global growth lasting for several years or a global contraction (recession or depression). Note Severity was assessed on a 1-7 Likert scale [1 – Low severity, 7 – High severity]. The percentages in the graphs may not add up to 100% because ﬁgures have been rounded up/down.1 Low High 2 3 4 5 6 7Severity 10-year rank: 24th 11th 10-year average risk severity score: 4.31 4.09 10 years 2 years –Growing debt in both advanced and developing economies poses a risk in an environment with higher spending pressures and relatively high interest rates. –Amid massive capital expenditure on artificial intelligence, the returns on ambitious projects are unclear and investor views can reverse quickly. –While inflationary pressures are relatively subdued for the immediate term, higher tariffs, debt monetization and other drivers could see a return of more widespread inflation concerns. First, consistently mounting debt levels may become a greater drag on growth or potentially lead to unexpected shocks. Second, predictions of an asset bubble bursting may come to pass, with far- reaching consequences. Third, there is an increased risk of boomerang inflation as trade barriers grow and as central banks come under pressure. Bryan Dijkhuizen, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2026 40