Global Risks Report 2026
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and less well-resourced governments, as well as
many NGOs, academic institutions, and other
organizations could fail to do so. Organizations that
face the biggest challenges are those that hold data
sets that are both sensitive and complex, making
migration to quantum-safe cryptography more
difficult.
There is an even more fundamental risk on the
horizon for all organizations. Protecting against
Shor’s algorithm is likely to only be a temporary
solution, as new quantum algorithms (in addition
to Shor's) are being researched that could in
future be used in cryptographic attacks. Targeted
organizations might not even know about the
existence of such new quantum attack algorithms
before attacks occur. With a high level of
Geoeconomic confrontation anticipated in the
coming years, according to the GRPS, it is to be
expected that adversarial governments or other
actors with quantum technology capabilities may
use these against each other and their respective
societies and economies. Further down the line,
state-sanctioned criminal groups could also find
ways to access quantum capabilities and create
new quantum algorithms.
Ultimately, the technological solution to quantum
computing attacks may come from the field of quantum communications itself. However, previous,
arguably less difficult technological shifts have taken
a decade or more to implement,127 and updating
cryptographic infrastructure to the extent needed
will be complex.128 With the nature of the quantum
cryptographic threat itself likely to evolve, quantum
safety interventions will need to become ongoing
efforts.129 Maintaining such cryptographic agility will
become a major challenge.
Respondents to the GRPS recognize these risk
interconnections, identifying Cyber insecurity as
the leading consequence of Adverse outcomes of
frontier technologies (including quantum), followed
by Misinformation and disinformation and
Adverse outcomes of AI technologies (Figure 48).
Widespread breaking of the cryptographic protocols
that underpin trust infrastructures could contribute,
for example, to more frequent and sophisticated
cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, causing
more and longer blackouts, contaminated water
supplies or transport accidents (see Section 2.5:
Infrastructure endangered). This would push
digital security in a quantum era firmly into the realm
of physical safety and national security.
Current and historical data privacy could also be
compromised. Breaches could in turn lead to an
Inequality
Adverse outcomes
of AI technologies
Misinformation
and disinformation
Economic downturn
Cyber insecurity
Societal polarization
Online harms
Censorship and surveillance
Concentration of strategic
resources and technologies
Geoeconomic
confrontation
Adverse outcomes
of frontier technologies
Disruptions to a systemically
important supply chain
Erosion of human rights
and/or of civic freedoms
Disruptions to critical infrastructure
Inequality
Adverse outcomes
of AI technologies
Misinformation
and disinformation
Economic downturn
Cyber insecurity
Societal polarization
Online harms
Censorship and surveillance
Concentration of strategic
resources and technologies
Geoeconomic
confrontation
Adverse outcomes
of frontier technologies
Disruptions to a systemically
important supply chain
Erosion of human rights
and/or of civic freedoms
Disruptions to critical infrastructure
Global risks landscape: Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies FIGURE 48
Source
World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2025-2026Edges
Relative influence
High
LowMediumRisk influenceNodesOverview
High
LowMediumRisk categories
Economic
Environmental
Geopolitical
Societal
Technological
Global Risks Report 2026
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