Foreword The past year has confirmed what many leaders had sensed: global supply chains have entered a new era of structural volatility. In 2025 alone, tariff escalations between major economies have reshuffled over $400 billion in trade flows to date (and growing),1 while disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal have driven container shipping costs up 40% year on year.2 Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows manufacturing output across advanced economies at its weakest growth since 2009.3 At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) and automation are redrawing the geography of value creation, concentrating capabilities in a handful of technology-enabled ecosystems and deepening dependencies in data, energy and talent. AI-related investment in supply chain and manufacturing operations reached $20 billion in 2025 – up from $6.5 billion in 2022.4 Yet access to critical inputs such as advanced chips, cloud infrastructure and training data remains concentrated among select economies, reinforcing the digital divide.5 These are not isolated shocks – they signal a structural rewiring of globalization. The linear model of “produce anywhere, deliver everywhere” has fractured into regional systems balancing efficiency with resilience. Geopolitics, energy transition and technological acceleration now move in tandem, reshaping where and how the world makes, moves and trades. In this environment, foresight has become the new currency of competitiveness.This white paper builds on a multi-year collaboration between the World Economic Forum and Kearney that has traced this transformation step by step. In 2023, we identified the structural forces rewiring global value chains.6 In 2024, we examined how leading manufacturers are redesigning their supply networks,7 and introduced the Country Readiness Framework, broadening the definition of national competitiveness to include factors such as infrastructure, energy, innovation, governance and diplomacy.8 “The Global Value Chains Outlook 2026” continues this trajectory. Drawing on insights from over 100 consultations with industry, government and academic leaders, along with survey data from more than 300 global executives and case analyses, this report offers a dual playbook for navigating structural volatility. For companies, it details how to re-architect operations for agility, trust and digital foresight. For policy-makers, it outlines how to build the enabling ecosystems in which adaptive industries can thrive. The objective is not to predict the next disruption, but to help leaders design systems that thrive on it. In an age when supply has become the defining constraint and policy the new design variable, success will belong to those who treat uncertainty as an enduring condition – and a source of advantage.Kiva Allgood Managing Director, World Economic Forum Global Value Chains Outlook 2026: Orchestrating Corporate and National AgilityJanuary 2026 Per Kristian Hong Global Lead, Kearney Foresight; Partner; Senior Fellow, Global Business Policy Council, Kearney Global Value Chains Outlook 2026: Orchestrating Corporate and National Agility 3