Anticipating growth in the new economy3 Understanding the economic outlook and the forces shaping it is critical to help governments and businesses chart their pathways to growth and navigate “no-regret” moves and dilemmas in the new economy. This section combines the latest IMF GDP growth projections15 with insights from more than 11,000 business leaders in over 100 countries participating in the World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey 2025.16 The analysis builds on the projections and data collected before the recent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. While the outlook for the global economy and GDP projections remains subject to heightened uncertainty and potential revision, results presented below provide a snapshot of early insights into the countries and industries that are likely to emerge as growth hotspots until 2030, as well as the trends, barriers and sources shaping growth over the next few years. Key takeaways include: 1 Growth will continue to shift: Middle-income economies will account for 65% of global growth over the next 5 years. Low-income countries will grow fastest (7.4% annually), but they will jointly account for only 1% of global growth, despite hosting 8% of the world’s population. Regionally, Asia will continue to drive growth globally, accounting for more than 50% of cumulative global GDP growth between 2025 and 2030. 2 IT services, advanced manufacturing, health and healthcare and accommodation and leisure are expected to be key drivers of growth in the next 5 years: These expectations reflect a number of underlying trends, including digitization and technological deepening, industrial upgrading and the continued growth of service-oriented economies driven by demographic and consumer shifts. 3 Over the next 5 years, demographic and geopolitical shifts are expected to drive increasingly divergent growth trajectories across countries: In five out of 10 countries, businesses expect demographic shifts to have negative impacts on economic growth, but there are large underlying differences with negative impacts expected in Europe and Eastern Asia and positive ones anticipated in Sub-Saharan Africa, Southern Asia, the Middle-East and North Africa. Similarly, while two-thirds of countries globally expect to be negatively impacted by geoeconomic fragmentation, one-third in South-Eastern Asia expect to reap economic dividends from it. The acceleration of frontier technology and the energy transition are expected to positively impact economic growth in most countries, while higher debt levels, societal polarization and climate change impacts are seen as headwinds. 4 Unlocking faster growth will require tailored approaches, as the key barriers identified by businesses vary significantly across regions and income levels: Higher costs of energy and, to a lesser extent, lack of policy stability are the only barriers to growth that top the agenda consistently in a large share of diverse countries, highlighting concerns around current geopolitical and geoeconomic instability. Other factors vary significantly across regions and income levels, with skills shortages and rigid regulations topping the agenda in high-income countries and limited access to finance and lack of infrastructure identified as bottlenecks in most lower-income economies. 5 Businesses expect their growth to be driven by corporate investment spending and foreign demand: Almost 50% of businesses globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, cite business investment in their country among their key sources of growth in the next 5 years, while companies in high-income countries expect to rely on exports and foreign demand. Domestic consumption and public spending are expected to play a smaller role, as public debt is at record levels and real incomes stagnate in many countries.Foresight and business perspectives offer a source of insight to inform the elaboration of national blueprints for growth. Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint 13

Growth in the New Economy Towards a Blueprint 2026