Growth in the New Economy Towards a Blueprint 2026

RegionsContribution to cumulative global GDP growth, 2025–2030 (%)Cumulative GDP growth, 2025–2030 ($, billion)5-year annualized GDP growth, 2025–2030 (%) Central Asia 1.3 715 5.8 Eastern Asia 26.9 15,206 5.0 Europe 15.5 8,772 3.4 Latin America and the Caribbean6.3 3,541 4.3 Middle East and Northern Africa6.4 3,637 5.3 Northern America 11.9 6,705 3.7 Oceania 0.9 513 4.0 South-Eastern Asia 8.3 4,666 6.1 Southern Asia 17.9 10,099 7.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.7 2,678 6.1 Income group High income 33.1 18,702 3.5 Upper-middle income 39.2 22,156 5.2 Lower-middle income 26.2 14,834 7.3 Low income 1.0 560 7.4Contribution of regions and income groups to global economic growth in 2025–2030 TABLE 1 Global growth over the remainder of the decade is expected to be driven by a relatively small number of countries and regions, which will account for a disproportionate share of expansion. China and India alone are projected to contribute well over one-third of global GDP growth by 2030, underscoring Asia’s increasingly central role in driving the global economy, while the United States is expected to account for around one-tenth of total growth.17 At the regional level, growth momentum is expected to be centred in Asia, with Eastern Asia and Southern Asia together contributing nearly half of global growth over this period, driven by a combination of scale and strong growth rates. By contrast, Europe and North America are projected to account for a more modest share of global growth, reflecting slower average growth rates despite their already large economic size. Other regions, including South-Eastern Asia, the Middle East and Northern Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, are each projected to contribute between 6% and 9% of global growth, making notable but more moderate contributions relative to Asia. By income group, middle-income countries will account for 65% of global growth, with upper- middle-income economies emerging as the primary engine. While lower-middle- and low- income economies are projected to record some of the fastest growth rates over the period, their contribution to global growth in absolute terms remains relatively modest, reflecting smaller economic bases. In particular, low-income countries will contribute only 1% to global GDP growth, despite representing 8% of the global population. Overall, the projections point to a continued rebalancing of global growth towards Asia and middle-income economies.18 This shift has important implications for global demand, investment patterns and the distribution of geoeconomic influence over the remainder of the decade. Source: Based on: International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025). World Economic Outlook October 2025 Database. Note: Current prices, purchasing power parity (PPP) international dollar, International Comparison Program (ICP) benchmarks 2017–2021.3.1 The shifting geography of growth Growth in the New Economy: Towards a Blueprint 14