Healthcare in a Changing Climate 2025

Dengue fever Dengue is projected to impose a significant health and economic burden by 2050. Asia will continue to bear the brunt, with 66,000 dengue-related deaths, 5.8 million DALYs and healthcare costs soaring to $105 billion.44 The costs associated with dengue are mostly from hospitalizations, long-term care and productivity losses. Africa will also face severe impacts, with 28,000 deaths, 2.1 million DALYs and an economic cost of $13 billion. The expansion of Aedes mosquito populations due to climate change and urbanization45 is expected to accelerate dengue transmission, emphasizing the urgent need for global action to control the disease and reduce its impacts on public health and economies worldwide. Recent data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)46 already shows a rising trend in dengue cases outside endemic regions, with 2023 seeing a notable spike in Europe. Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for dengue offers significant potential to reduce the health and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change. The analysis conducted for this report shows that introducing novel prevention methods, diagnostics and treatments could prevent approximately 63% of the projected health and economic burdens linked to dengue expansion. These advancements could save up to 5.6 million DALYs, prevent $89 billion in economic losses (including $3 billion in healthcare costs) and avert 66,000 deaths. The impacts of various forms of dengue prevention can be seen in the following table:Dengue fever driven by climate change is projected to cause 93,000 deaths, 7.9 million DALYs and $118 billion of costs in Asia and Africa by 2050 – but 63% of these impacts can be prevented. Dengue prevention impact TABLE 2 Prevention type Typical measures% impact preventedDALYs preventedEconomic losses preventedDeaths averted Enhanced preventionContinuing roll-out of vaccines efficacious across all serotypes of dengue Development of single dose vaccines to improve adherence46% 4 million $64 billion 48,000 Improved diagnosticsDevelop affordable, easy- to-perform diagnostics Ensure their widespread availability5% 0.5 million $8 billion 6,000 Novel treatments Antiviral treatments Including monoclonal antibodies as a potential short-term prevention method12% 1.1 million $17 billion 12,000 Total 63% 5.6 million $89 billion 66,000 Source: World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis. Continued roll-out of vaccines targeting all four serotypes in individuals both already exposed and unexposed to dengue would continue the excellent progress in this field,47 reducing the incidence of the disease and preventing severe cases, particularly in endemic regions. Novel treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies could also play a role,48 and are being studied as a potential short-term prevention method for high-risk groups. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD)Climate-related events such as floods, storms and droughts are increasingly recognized as catalysts for mental health conditions,49 such as post- traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Acute disasters, such as floods and storms, expose individuals to traumatic experiences that can trigger PTSD, including loss of family members and friends, homes and livelihoods. In regions such as South-East Asia, where floods are frequent and severe,50 these events are expected to cause $147 billion in PTSD-related healthcare expenses and 41 million DALYs by 2050. Globally, PTSD from climate events is projected to cost $397 billion and cause 85 million DALYs, underscoring the need for targeted mental health interventions in disaster-prone regions. Healthcare in a Changing Climate: Investing in Resilient Solutions 16