Healthcare in a Changing Climate 2025

Stunting Stunting is caused by malnutrition or malabsorption of nutrients and is already a significant global health challenge, affecting millions of children under five in less economically developed economies. It is expected to be further exacerbated by climate change54 as rising temperatures threaten food availability by reducing crop yields and raising the price of the limited supply. By 2050, assuming emissions are not reduced sufficiently, the global cost of stunted development in children is projected to be $1.8 trillion, impacting 887 million DALYs. Regional disparities are stark, with the Mediterranean region, West Africa and Southern Africa bearing the heaviest burdens. In the Mediterranean region, stunting is expected to lead to economic losses of $700 billion including GDP losses and treatment costs, and affect 16 million DALYs. In West Africa and Southern Africa, it is projected to incur losses of $231 billion, affecting a staggering 727 million DALYs. The differential in number of DALYs versus the cost reflects the limited spending on healthcare in Africa because of lack of resources. Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for stunting offers significant potential to reduce the health and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change. The analysis shows that introducing novel prevention and prenatal methods, diagnostics and treatments could prevent approximately 45% of the projected health and economic burdens linked to stunting. These measures could save up to 397 million DALYs, prevent $753 billion in economic losses, including $16 billion in healthcare costs and avert 1.3 million deaths. Together, these interventions and the need for targeted investments to develop them represent key opportunities for public health advancement. The impacts of various forms of stunting prevention can be seen in the following table:Stunting in children driven by climate change is expected to cause around $1.8 trillion in costs and over 887 million DALYs by 2050 – but roughly 45% of these impacts can be prevented, including 1.3 million deaths. Stunting prevention impact TABLE 5 Prevention type Typical measures% impact preventedDALYs preventedEconomic losses preventedDeaths averted Enhanced preventionCreate vaccines and interventions to prevent malabsorption Address maternal health to prevent stunting36% 322 million $602 billion 1.04 million Improved diagnosticsImprove early detection of stunting Implement point-of-care nutritional deficiency testing6% 49 million $101 billion 170,000 Novel treatments Address the impact of interventions on cognitive development3% 26 million $50 billion 90,000 Total 45% 397 million $753 billion 1.3 million Source: World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis. Hypertension Hypertension is a major global health concern, even without climate change, with rates rising in parts of the globe. Global warming is likely to exacerbate that trend as rising sea levels contribute to saltwater intrusion into groundwater, increasing the concentrations of calcium, potassium and magnesium, which are associated with elevated blood pressure and cardiovascular risks. By 2050, the impact in Asia in particular is expected to be severe, with projected healthcare costs of $48.1 billion and an estimated burden of 127 million DALYs.55 Coastal areas with a low human development index are particularly vulnerable, with saltwater intrusion projected to contribute to more than 800,000 new hypertension cases by 2050 in these vulnerable coastal regions. This is linked to an economic toll on healthcare systems of an estimated $73 billion to address hypertension-related issues and an impact of approximately 193 million DALYs. Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for hypertension offers significant potential to reduce the health and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change. Hypertension driven by climate change is expected to cause around $73 billion in costs and 193 million DALYs – but 53% of these impacts can be prevented, including 54,000 deaths. Healthcare in a Changing Climate: Investing in Resilient Solutions 18