Healthcare in a Changing Climate 2025

Asthma Asthma is highly susceptible to environmental changes driven by climate change. The projected increase in wildfires will increase exposure to smoke from fires, which can trigger asthma, especially among those directly exposed to the fumes. Meanwhile, the wind erosion of dry and degraded soils during wildfires generates airborne particles, compounding the issue of poor air quality and intensifying respiratory challenges. Additionally, climate-driven changes are expected to lead to a higher prevalence of allergens, such as pollen, which in turn may further exacerbate asthma symptoms. The western US is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts, where increasing wildfire frequency and intensity are expected to contribute to a further deterioration in air quality, posing severe respiratory health risks. By 2050, additional economic and health impacts of asthma related to wildfires are projected to be substantial, with North and Central America expected to incur $4.6 billion in economic impact and almost 400,000 DALYs.57 Globally, asthma-related costs are estimated to reach $9.4 billion and an additional 2.1 million DALYs. The situation is compounded by data gaps in remote communities, where the health impacts remain under-documented, leaving these populations vulnerable to the consequences of poor air quality. Addressing the priority unmet medical needs for asthma offers significant potential to reduce the health and economic impacts exacerbated by climate change. The analysis shows that introducing novel prevention methods, diagnostics and treatments could prevent approximately 57% of the projected health and economic burdens linked to asthma. These advancements could save up to 1.2 million DALYs, prevent $4.6 billion in economic losses (including $0.9 billion in healthcare costs) and avert 25,000 deaths. To achieve the full 57% potential for health improvement, strategic interventions must be a priority. The impacts of various forms of asthma prevention can be seen in the following table:Asthma driven by climate change is expected to cause around $9.4 billion in costs and 2.1 million DALYs – but 57% of these impacts can be prevented, including 25,000 deaths. Asthma prevention impact TABLE 8 Prevention type Typical measures% impact preventedDALYs preventedEconomic losses preventedDeaths averted Enhanced preventionDevelop innovative interventions to prevent initial onset14% 0.3 million $1.1 billion 6,000 Improved diagnosticsDevelop more definitive diagnostics and tools to predict asthma exacerbations Support dynamic self- management30% 0.6 million $2.6 billion 13,000 Novel treatments Develop treatments targeting modification of the underlying disease Create patient-friendly alternatives to inhaler- based treatments13% 0.3 million $0.9 billion 6,000 Total 57% 1.2 million $4.6 billion 25,000 Source: World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis. Healthcare in a Changing Climate: Investing in Resilient Solutions 20