Healthcare in a Changing Climate 2025

–New treatments: Transitioning to a more cost-efficient drug also incurs costs, with some studies indicating up to 31% saving per case treated. F. Preventable health and economic impacts The parameters described above were applied in combination to calculate the preventable health and economic impacts across the eight high-priority diseases in scope. Overlaps between solutions were factored in to avoid double-counting of health and economic impacts. For instance, effective population vaccination could significantly reduce the incidence of the disease, thereby limiting the additional potential for diagnostics or treatments (see Figure A4). Approach for quantifying overlap between interventions (example for malaria) FIGURE A4 Prevented impact Excluded overlaps100% 77%68%56%24% 9% 12% Malaria health impact b y 2050Impact of preventio n measures3% Impact of diagnostic measures6% Impact of treatment measuresRemaining impact after a ll measur esRemaining impact after prev entio n measuresRemaining impact after prev entio n and d iagnostics measuresStep 1: Account for preventionStep 2 : Account for diagnostic sStep 3: Account for treatment 24% — 24%12% 24%x12% = 3% 9%17% 24%x17% + 9%x17% = 6% 12%Potenti ally prevented impact Overlap wi th other sol utions Final prev ented impact Source: World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis. A sequential approach was developed to exclude overlaps from the quantification, as follows: –Step 1: Prevention measures were applied to the entire health and economic impact. In the example above, the introduction of new vaccines could prevent up to 24% of the health impacts by 2050. –Step 2: Diagnostic measures were then considered for the impact post-prevention, addressing the remaining 77% of the entire health and economic impact for malaria. The prevented impact from new diagnostics for malaria goes down from 12% in the absence of prevention measures, to 9% when the impact of prevention measures is considered. –Step 3: Following a similar logic, treatment measures are applied to the impact post- prevention and diagnostics, addressing the remaining 68% of the entire impact. The prevented impact from new treatment for malaria goes down from 17% in the absence of prevention and diagnostic measures, to 12% when the impact of these measures is considered. As a result, overlaps account on average for 8.4% of health and economic impacts across diseases until 2050. Overlaps were excluded from the final outcomes presented in this report. Healthcare in a Changing Climate: Investing in Resilient Solutions 38