Healthcare in a Changing Climate 2025

3.2 Assessing the costs Developing new interventions to address high- priority unmet needs would require up to $65 billion of investment in research and development in the coming five to eight years. For each intervention type, the number of required interventions was multiplied by historical average R&D costs. –Vaccine development costs represent 8% of total R&D costs. Historical development costs have been up to $1 billion per vaccine. Vaccines are deemed crucial for addressing climate challenges, including those for malaria, dengue fever and enteric infections contributing to malabsorption in stunting. –Drug development costs represent 89% of total R&D costs. Developing new drugs, such as those combating treatment resistance is often the most expensive endeavour, with costs up to $2.8 billion depending on the therapeutic area and accounting for the risks associated with drug development failures. –Diagnostic device development costs represent 1% of total R&D costs. Development costs for new diagnostic medtech devices are up to $54 million per device. –Digital therapeutic development costs represent less than 1% of total R&D costs. Digital therapeutics typically have the lowest development costs, up to $425,000 per application. 3.3 Model limitations The quantification approach developed in this report provides a solid foundation, encouraging further research assessing new solutions preventing the impact of climate change on human health. Further research could enhance the precision of the assessment, by addressing some of the following limitations of the report: –Extrapolation of data: Given the lack of existing data, averages were used to finesse the projection. Additionally, extrapolations were developed across comparable medical interventions when no data was available. A sensitivity analysis was performed to measure the variance of outcomes, however additional research and the use of Monte Carlo analysis could be leveraged to further enhance the quantification. –Parameters used: A similar set of assumptions was applied to assess the impact that could be prevented across DALYs, economic losses and additional deaths. However, some innovative interventions could be more effective in preventing, for example, additional mortality rather than reducing health impacts or saving economic losses. Further research could focus on assessing how innovative interventions could affect these impacts separately. –Limited region-specific data: Region-specific estimates were utilized wherever available, focusing on one of six regions as per WMO’s classification (Africa, Asia, South America, South-West Pacific, Europe and North America, Central America and the Caribbean). In some instances where region-specific research was lacking, global averages or findings from comparable regions were used. Further research could focus on detailing prevented health and economic impacts in selected regions of interest. –R&D timelines: The analysis assumed that all new research initiatives would commence in 2024-2025. Further research could include the assessment of the probability of success for existing pipeline solutions. –Reliance on historical evidence: Historical data was utilized to assess model parameters, including innovation adoption rate and efficacy of solutions. Going forward, the potential degree of urgency associated with addressing health and economic impacts of climate change could speed up adoption rates. Similarly, R&D could result in a significant increase in efficacy of potential interventions, not yet captured by existing solutions or ongoing trials. Detailed assessment of how these parameters might evolve could enhance the quantification of preventable health and economic impacts. –Focus on human impacts related to climate change: The prevented impact assessment in this report was focused on additional health and economic impacts caused by climate change. However, new interventions could help prevent a portion of health and economic impacts not linked to climate change. Assessing such potential in further research could create additional evidence that supports the importance of investing in highlighted interventions. Healthcare in a Changing Climate: Investing in Resilient Solutions 39