Cultural and institutional dynamics shape these outcomes. Collectivist norms and informal mechanisms, such as wasta (informal networks of influence), play a central role in mediating access to opportunities. These practices draw on reciprocal social obligation and are often understood as support rather than exclusion.12 Yet research shows that venture capital decisions rely heavily on social capital and familiarity, reinforcing prestige bias and narrowing definitions of merit. Proximity, rather than contribution, determines visibility.13 Youth aspirations reveal another tension. Nearly half of Arab youth say they plan to start their own business in the next five years, yet access to entrepreneurship support and skills-building remains uneven, with formal opportunities often concentrated in higher education institutions.14 Scarcity of opportunity is therefore not inherent, but socially and structurally reproduced. Islamic principles of collective responsibility (amaanah) offer a pathway to reorient practice toward collective contribution and to widen access. At the same time, countervailing signals are emerging. Digital commons, open-source infrastructures15, collaborative innovation models16 and experimental procurement policies are expanding across the region. Public-sector initiatives increasingly seek to reward local value creation, social contribution and ecosystem development17. Together, these signals suggest institutions are becoming more open to redefining how they confer legitimacy and visibility within innovation systems.Investments across MENA countries in H1 2025 FIGURE 2 $2.1B invested across 334 dealsInvestments breakdown by country $ 41.6K 8 deals Sudan$ 2.3M 7 deals Lebanon $ 5.4M 8 deals Tunisia $ 7.7M 7 deals Morocco $ 100K 1 deal Algeria $ 178.9M 52 deals Egypt $ 1.3M 9 deals Jordan $ 8.2M 8 deals Oman$ 1M 2 deals Iraq $ 300K 3 deals Palestine $ 6.9M 3 deals Kuwait $ 4M 5 deals Bahrain $ 541M 114 deals UAE $ 3M 9 deals Jordan $ 1.3B 98 deals KSA 1 Network concentration and opportunity closure Investment and recognition decisions frequently rely on familiar networks, referrals and established relationships. Founders who are already visible receive repeated validation, funding and access. In contrast, others, including women, rural youth, refugees and lower-income entrepreneurs, remain excluded despite demonstrated capability as capital and attention continue to circulate within a narrow set of actors and geographies, entry points narrow further, reinforcing gender, geographic and class-based disparities. Over time, ecosystem diversity and adaptive capacity decline.SYSTEM DYNAMICS When growth reinforces inequality Three reinforcing dynamics help explain why expanding entrepreneurial activity has not translated into broad- based legitimacy or durable growth.Source: Wamda (2025)11 Intergenerational Foresight: An Approach for Long-Term Responsibility in Governance 17

Intergenerational Foresight 2026