Intergenerational Foresight 2026

2 Prestige bias and perceived investability Informal markers of credibility, including lineage, education and institutional affiliation, shape perceptions of investability. Founders with familiar profiles are treated as lower risk regardless of their underlying contributions or impact. Repeated selection of similar profiles reinforces investor preferences and undermines the legitimacy of demonstrated ecosystem value. Investability becomes a reflection of inheritance rather than performance. 3 Extractive recognition and weak capability diffusion Success narratives within the ecosystem often elevate individual founders without mechanisms to reinvest visibility, knowledge, or resources back into the wider entrepreneurial base. While these stories signal progress, their benefits remain concentrated within existing networks. In the absence of structures that convert recognition into mentorship, shared learning, or ecosystem-wide capacity building, visibility becomes extractive rather than generative. An extractive model of visibility limits collective learning and weakens long-term resilience. Together, these dynamics sustain a visibility economy in which legitimacy is disproportionately inherited rather than earned through contribution. While high-profile successes continue to emerge, they do so at the cost of trust, inclusion and long- term system performance. The dynamics indicate a structural misalignment among visibility, legitimacy and contribution. Visibility determines who is seen. Legitimacy determines who is trusted. Contribution reflects demonstrated value to the wider ecosystem. In many Middle East and North African contexts, these elements remain weakly aligned. This provocation targets misalignment by anchoring visibility in contribution. Rather than dismantling relational systems, it refines how recognition is earned within them. By linking visibility to measurable ecosystem value, such as mentorship, knowledge sharing, collaborative development and public-good outputs, recognition becomes a signal of trustworthiness rather than access. This shift is practical. It does not require heavy regulation. It operates through incentive design, information flows and leadership norms. It aligns with regional values of collective responsibility and stewardship, including the principle of amaanah, which emphasizes an obligation to the wider community. Anchoring visibility in contribution strengthens legitimacy, improves capital allocation and widens participation. Over time, it enhances ecosystem resilience and global credibility, making the region more investable and stable.RATIONALE Realigning visibility, legitimacy and contribution These pathways are illustrative rather than prescriptive. They show how institutions can operationalize contribution-based visibility across policy, finance and ecosystem leadership. 1. Re-anchor rules of recognition around contribution Public funding programmes, accelerators and investment processes can place greater weight on demonstrated ecosystem contribution alongside commercial potential. Criteria may include mentorship provided, collaborative projects undertaken, open problem-solving and local capacity building. This approach refines market judgement by improving signal quality and rewarding positive-sum behaviour. 2. Improve information flows through transparent contribution signals Innovation ecosystems depend on trust, yet information about contributions is often opaque. Shared platforms, open reporting norms and contribution indices can surface currently invisible activity, including cross-regional collaboration and community problem-solving. When contribution becomes observable, visibility becomes less dependent on insider access.ILLUSTRATIVE PATHWAYS Intergenerational Foresight: An Approach for Long-Term Responsibility in Governance 18