Intergenerational Foresight 2026

1 Elite capture and institutional erosion Political and corporate elites dominate licensing, contracting and revenue allocation.86 Resource rents fund patronage, weaken oversight bodies and reshape rules in favour of incumbents. As institutions lose independence and enforcement capacity, they become less able to resist capture.87 Institutional weakness does not merely fail to prevent capture. It stabilizes it. 2 Export dependence and structural vulnerability Reliance on raw material exports entrenches asymmetric bargaining power, as multinational firms control global value chains.88 Limited domestic value addition and fiscal diversification narrow policy options, reinforcing dependence on extraction rents and discouraging alternative development pathways. 3 Demographic pressure and performative inclusion Rising civic expectations, particularly among youth, are met with symbolic participation.89 Consultations proceed without binding authority. Dashboards display data without decision rights. Community trusts distribute benefits without control. The gap between participation and power erodes trust and destabilizes local governance without altering authority structures.90 4 Complexity, opacity and the governance mirage (reinforcing) Legal frameworks and monitoring systems are designed in highly technical forms that communities cannot realistically interpret or contest.91 This gap produces transparency without agency. As collective capacity to challenge decisions declines, authority recentralizes even as institutions claim compliance with global governance norms.As demands for inclusion grow, exclusion is becoming more sophisticated.73 Nowhere is this more visible than in frontline and Indigenous communities whose lands underpin extraction.74 The Niger Delta illustrates the stakes.75 Decades of oil production have generated vast wealth for elites and multinational firms, while local communities bear severe environmental degradation and entrenched poverty.76 This outcome reflects not an accidental failure of “trickle-down” development, but an actively maintained governance loop in which extraction finances the very systems that prevent redistribution and accountability.77 Demographic change is accelerating this legitimacy crisis.78 More than 60% of the population in Sub- Saharan Africa is under 25 and by 2050, the region is projected to account for approximately 25% of the world’s population, compared with around 7% for Europe.79 This youth cohort is increasingly politically conscious and less tolerant of inherited exclusion, particularly for Indigenous and frontline communities.80 Across the region, youth-led movements demand more than improved benefit- sharing.81 They call for meaningful stewardship over extraction decisions, including authority over terms, enforcement and long-term restoration. In response, a more insidious pattern has emerged: the resource governance mirage.82 The language of reform, participation and benefit-sharing is adopted, while real authority remains centralized through legal complexity, technocratic opacity and performative consultation.83 Governments and institutions invite communities to participate without giving them the power to decide, monitor or enforce. Institutions increase transparency, yet they do not expand agency. At the same time, countervailing signals point to alternative trajectories. Youth-led civic technology initiatives demand open contracting and legible governance.84 Indigenous sovereignty movements increasingly link environmental justice to economic self-determination. Hybrid governance arrangements combining Indigenous authority with democratic accountability are emerging in pockets across the continent.85 Together, these signals suggest that incremental reform is insufficient. Structural redesign of power is the decisive leverage point.REGIONAL CONTEXT Legitimacy and participation in resource governance SYSTEM DYNAMICS Governance structures and power distribution Four reinforcing dynamics can explain why extractive governance patterns persist across Sub-Saharan Africa, despite repeated reform efforts. Intergenerational Foresight: An Approach for Long-Term Responsibility in Governance 35