Intergenerational Foresight 2026

Sub-Saharan Africa What if Sub-Saharan Africa rewrote the rules of resource governance by replacing elite-driven systems with a Dual Governance Model (DGM), a structure in which communities and the state share legally binding authority over licensing, monitoring, enforcement and benefit-sharing? Sub-Saharan Africa sits at the centre of a global resource governance paradox.68 The region holds an estimated 30% of the world’s mineral reserves, yet this abundance has translated poorly into broad- based prosperity.69 Although roughly 16% of the global population lives in the region, around 67% of people living in extreme poverty are found there.70 This inequality is not a failure of endowment, but a failure of governance. The roots of this disjuncture lie in extractive systems shaped by colonial rule and sustained through post-independence dependency structures.71 Economies remain locked into raw material exports with limited value addition, constrained bargaining power and weak domestic control over production and pricing. Resource wealth that could fund long-term development instead circulates through narrow political and corporate channels, reinforcing inequality and institutional fragility. Governance performance data reinforces this picture. The 2021 Resource Governance Index shows that many of the region’s leading resource producers score in the “weak” to “poor” range, marked by opaque licensing processes, limited community participation and high vulnerability to political capture.72 In practice, resource revenues frequently become tools of patronage rather than foundations for resilient development. F Intergenerational Foresight: An Approach for Long-Term Responsibility in Governance 34