Making the Green Transition Work for People and the Economy 2025

Regulatory uncertainty and compliance with climate policies are reported as a concern by over one third of executives surveyed. Of those surveyed, 36% of businesses globally have identified regulatory uncertainty and compliance burden as a key challenge to stay competitive in the green transition. Concerns are higher in high-income countries and progressively decrease for lower levels of income, while they seem generally uncorrelated with the level of maturity of regulation around renewable energy. This may suggest that the overall regulatory environment in high-income countries has a bigger role in shaping business perceptions than climate-related policies. Alternatively, it may show that some countries have been able to implement high-quality policies around energy transition without business leaders perceiving or struggling with increased compliance burden (Figure 8). Share of respondents citing "Regulatory uncertainty and compliance burden" as a top barrierMaturity of legal framework for renewable energy (score) 30 20 10 50 40 70 60 800255075100 Median High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income SVN LUX MLT LTUEST LVAKWTSAU BHRNZL QATCAN SGP CRIOMN HUN AREUSA ITA AUS BELSWENOR DEUFRA JPNCHE FIN URYROU HRVPOLPANNLDKORGBRCHL ESPDNK AUT IRLCZE PRTGRC BRA ZAF MEX PER COL GTM ECU PRY MUS BWA BIH TUR DOM IDN SLV KAZ ARM MKD BGR JAM ARG THA MYS GEO AZE JOR CIV SEN UKR TZA VNM BGD MNG NPL ZMB PAK TUN ZWE BOL HND LKA NGA IND GHA MAR AGO CMR KGZ NAM LSO LAO LAO IRN PHL EGY KEN YEM MLI TCD RWA COD MOZ MWIMaturity of legal framework for renewable energy in countries and regulatory uncertainty FIGURE 8 The green transition is reshaping labour markets. The combined impact of climate mitigation and adaptation policies as well as the rollout of green energy technology is estimated to disrupt 14.4 million jobs globally by 2030. While the overall impact on employment may be net positive (creating 9.6 million jobs globally), 2.4 million jobs could still be lost as a result of these changes, highlighting the need to provide support mechanisms to minimize impacts on workers and support them in productive job transitions. 36 Concerns over workers being displaced can be high, even in countries that expect significant economic benefits from the green transition; however, these concerns decrease where social protection coverage is higher. Figure 9 plots four different scenarios of overall economic impact of the green transition (positive in the top quadrants and negative in the bottom ones), specifically the impact on workers (high levels of disruption in the right quadrants and low levels of disruption in the left quadrants), that emerge through the results of the World Economic Forum’s Executive Opinion Survey. The countries are distributed among the four quadrants based on business responses on these two dimensions. Four distinct groups can be identified among the survey results: –Transition opportunities: countries in this group are likely to face both positive economic impact and large disruption to their labour markets. Areas of focus may include transitioning workers towards opportunities created by the growing green economy. –Shortage threat: positive economic impacts of the green transition and limited disruption to existing jobs are expected among these countries. These countries might face talent shortages limiting their growth potential and may focus on strengthening their talent pipeline through reskilling and education enhancements. –Support need: negative economic impacts of the green transition, with limited growth opportunities and significant industrial disruption, are expected among these countries. These countries may struggle to reposition workers within the labour market in response to the green transition and may require other forms of labour support and social protection.Source: World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey 2025; World Bank, Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE) Making the Green Transition Work for People and the Economy 15