Making the Green Transition Work for People and the Economy 2025

Impact of the green transition on the economy and on workers FIGURE 9Expected impact of the green transition on the economy (1 = negative; 7 = positive) Share of respondents citing "Workers will be displaced" as a risk (%)2.5 0 20 40 60 80 1004 356 Legacy trap (pessimism with low disruption)Shortage threat (optimism with low disruption)Transition opportunities (optimism with high disruption) Support need (pessimism with high disruption)JOR BOL LSOIRNMKD AGOCMRGHA TZAZMB YEMMLIRWA URY IRL SRBBIHCRIIDN VNM BWAAZE FIN GBRAREUSA KWT EST High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income LVA –Legacy trap: countries in this group expect a negative economic impact from the green transition without, however, significant job disruptions. As workers remain employed in declining sectors and industries, they might face declining productivity and wages without the possibility of renewing skills and competencies.Across income levels, executives’ concerns around workers’ displacement are lower in countries with higher levels of social protection 37 (Figure 10). While transitioning efforts can lead to displacement, the adverse impacts – real and perceived – may be offset by expectations of a managed transition and comparatively high levels of social protection. Further, countries that have the highest support needs also have the lowest levels of social protection coverage, at 43% against a global average of 58%. Worker displacement and social protection FIGURE 10 Share of respondents citing "Workers will be displaced" as a risk (%)0 20 40 60 80 100040 206080100Social protection coverage (%) Income group Non-high income High income IRNSGP PRT IRL MNGGEOFINAUT DNK NLD NORBEU FRA BEL SWE NZL SVN EST GBR ITACHE AUS KAZLVA UKR ZAF IDNUSACAN INDBRACZE BGR ROUESPPOL BHRHUN MLT GRC HRV KOR MUS CHL THA DOMSAU CRITURARGPAN NAMCOL MAR VNMKGZ PHL ZMB MWIGHA MLIAZE TZABWA CMR CODYEMZWE NGA TCDQATKENBGD OMNJAM NPLHND PAKSEN RWAGTMLAOSLV LSOJORBOLURY JPN LKA PRY MYS PERTUN MKDARMECU EGY AGOCIVKWT ARENote: Score (1 = The economy will greatly suffer from decarbonization; 7 = The economy will greatly benefit from decarbonization) Source: World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey 2024 and 2025 Source: World Economic Forum Executive Opinion Survey 2024; International Labour Organization (ILO), SDG Labour Market Indicators (ILOSDG) Making the Green Transition Work for People and the Economy 16