Net Zero Industry Tracker 2024 Trucking

The trucking industry is on a path to significantly reduce its carbon emissions, with the goal of cutting emissions intensity by 28% by 2030 and 94% by 2050, according to the IEA’s Net-Zero Scenario.256 By 2050, direct CO2e emissions are expected to drop to just 0.22 Gt, down from 1.89 Gt in 2023.257 Achieving this goal will require the deployment of 7 million zero-emission trucks by 2030, as outlined by the Mission Possible Partnership (MPP).258 Currently, the adoption of alternative fuel technologies remains in the early stages: compressed and liquified biogas and synfuels are in their mature phase but still early in market penetration, while BETs and HETs are in the demonstration phase.Infrastructure readiness is a critical challenge, with less than 1%259 of the necessary infrastructure for BETs and HETs in place. Massive clean energy investments are needed, including 700 GW of renewable power and 50 million tons per annum of hydrogen capacity by 2050.260 The shift to zero-emission trucks comes with high costs; the green premium for manufacturers stands at 80%, which translates to a 1-3% price increase for consumers.261 Up to $9 trillion262 in additional investments are required by 2050, amounting to an extra $320 billion annually. Despite these challenges, governments are announcing stricter emissions standards and more ambitious zero-emission truck targets, with global collaboration on infrastructure expected to accelerate innovation and adoption. Fuel mix in 2022 and 2050 (NZE Scenario) FIGURE 36 100% 20% 0% 40% 60% 80% Diesel and gasoline Natural gas Electricity Biofuels Hydrogen2022 fuel mix 2050 net-zero fuel mix92.3% 7% 74% 16% 3%3.3% 4.2% Source: IEA Net Zero Scenario. 5 Net-Zero Industry Tracker: 2024 Edition