Ocean Economy Imperative 2026

Planetary systems underpin life on Earth and the stability of economies and societies.1 The ocean sits at the centre of this interdependence, regulating the climate and sustaining global food and trade systems, while absorbing a large share of planetary stress. In 2024, global average temperatures were 1.5°C higher than pre-industrial levels for the first time,2 triggering planetary tipping points: warm- water coral reefs crossed their thermal tipping point of 1.2°C and experienced the worst bleaching event on record over 2023-2025,3 and recent studies suggest that ocean acidification has also crossed its “planetary boundary.”4 These shifts in planetary systems already present economic consequences, such as rising costs across supply chains, infrastructure and insurance markets. Global food demand, for example, is increasing as agricultural systems face mounting challenges, including soil degradation, water scarcity, biodiversity loss and climate-driven yield volatility. Maintaining output under these conditions requires more capital and higher inputs. At the same time, global growth dynamics are slowing, and leaders anticipate a period of weaker growth and structural disruption, particularly with shocks to trade and value changes expected to have system-wide impacts.5 As a result, investors, business leaders and capital providers are converging around a shared strategic question: Where can durable, risk-adjusted growth be found in a world of tighter constraints? Against this backdrop, the ocean economy – projected to double from $2.6 trillion in 2020 to $5.1 trillion by 20506 – emerges as a compelling investment opportunity. Several structural characteristics underpin this potential.First, much of the ocean economy operates outside the zero-sum competition for land, even as urbanization, agriculture, energy transition, infrastructure and conservation efforts compete for finite space. Additionally, while marine environments are not immune to climate change, some ocean-based activities, particularly those offshore, exhibit comparatively stable physical conditions over long time horizons, supporting more predictable operational environments for capital-intensive assets.7 Second, the ocean offers pathways to resource production with lower input intensity. In food systems, well-managed aquaculture and fisheries can generate high-quality protein with significantly lower land use, freshwater consumption, and, in some cases, greenhouse gas emissions relative to conventional agriculture. For investors, these efficiency advantages translate into potential resilience against input price volatility, regulatory tightening and climate-related disruptions. Finally, the scale of the ocean economy is underestimated. Aggregate ocean-based economic activity – encompassing food production, transportation, energy, materials, biotechnology, tourism and digital infrastructure – has been estimated to equal the fifth-largest economy if it were a country. This is not merely a story of size, but of growth dynamics. In recent decades, ocean- related industries have expanded at a rate that in many cases outpaces traditional sectors, driven by technological innovation, rising demand for sustainable resources, and increasing recognition of the ocean’s central role in global systems.Introduction