Governments can send strong signals to companies about how they view entry into carbon markets, that help build trust and demand. A coalition of governments is needed to push for high-integrity voluntary markets, especially with compliance markets moving too slowly and Article 6 coming online. Rachel Kyte, UK Special Representative for Climate There is disparity in host-country readiness, but we see notable potential and growth in carbon markets. Inge-Lise Mackaay, Head of ESG Solutions, FIC, Deutsche BankWhat is next for Article 6? To unlock the full potential of Article 6 and enable a thriving, high-integrity global carbon market, the following priority actions must be taken across policy, finance and implementation: –Empower the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body (SBM) to continue developing and approving methodologies at speed. –Provide technical assistance to build and interlink national registries. –Accelerate national frameworks for clear local interpretation of Article 6: how credits are issued, authorized and counted towards NDCs. –Ensure early engagement by private investors with policy-makers to synchronize investment cycles with policy development. –Improve market access and visibility to global demand – especially for African developers who currently lack the same visibility as those in North America or Europe. –Widely disseminate success stories to demonstrate that high-integrity, investable Article 6 transactions are viable. –Embed Article 6 projects within blended finance models, integrating carbon revenue streams to bridge viability gaps – particularly for adaptation and early mitigation. –Foster tripartite agreements between developers, credible buyers and financiers to align interests and create bankable environments. By integrating results-based carbon revenues, sourced via Article 6 mechanisms, into vehicles such as DevCos and YieldCos, hybrid investment models can bridge the viability gap for high-quality, long-term decarbonization projects. This supports lifecycle financing from development through to mature operation. These transformations will take time, but over the next 5-10 years the global supply of carbon credits is expected to surge by 20 to 35 times current levels.87 Early entrants will have the opportunity to help shape this high-growth market. Now is the moment for investors to act: to deepen their understanding, forge strategic partnerships and engage constructively with policy-makers in both EMDEs and developed economies. Waiting until the system is fully built risks missing early- mover advantages and the chance to influence market direction. 43 From Risk to Reward: Unlocking Private Capital for Climate and Growth

Risk to Reward 2025