The Global Risks Report 2024

Censorship and surveillance Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies Cyber insecurity Adverse outcomesof AI technologiesTechnological powerconcentrationMisinformation and disinformationIntrastate violence Terrorist attacksErosion of human rights SocietalpolarizationInterstate armed conflict Insufficient infrastructure and services Lack of economic opportunity Labour shortages Geoeconomic confrontation UnemploymentDebtInflation Illicit economic activityInvoluntary migration Infectious diseasesPollutionBiodiversity loss and ecosystem collapseCritical change to Earth systems Extremeweather events Chronic health conditions Biological, chemical or nuclear hazardsDisruptions tocritical infrastructureNon-weather related natural disastersNatural resource shortages Concentration of strategic resourcesDisruptions to a systemically important supply chain Economic downturn Asset bubble burstsGlobal risks landscape: an interconnections map FIGURE 1.7 Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024.Edges Relative influence High LowMediumRisk influenceNodes High LowMedium Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Interstate armed conflict (#5) rises in the rankings for the two-year horizon, across nearly all stakeholder groups, except for government respondents. This divergence may simply reflect different views around defining conflict: interstate armed conflict in the strict definition has remained relatively rare thus far, but international interventions in intrastate conflict are on the rise (Chapter 1.4: Rise in conflict). Extreme weather events, a persistent concern between last year and this year, is at #2, Cyber insecurity at #4, Involuntary migration at #8 and Pollution at #10, rounding out the top 10 concerns in respondents’ risk perceptions through to 2026. Overall, global risks have lower severity scores compared to last year’s results. 7 Further down in the two-year time frame rankings, Critical change to Earth systems comes in at #11, Debt in 16th place, and Adverse outcomes of AI technologies and other frontier technologies in 29th and last place, respectively. The following sections explore some of the most severe risks that many expect to play out over the next two years, focusing on three entrants to the top 10 risks list over the short term: Misinformation and disinformation (#1), Interstate armed conflict (#5) and Economic downturn (#9). We briefly describe the latest developments and key drivers for false information, a rise in conflict and economic uncertainty, and consider their emerging implications and knock-on effects. Global Risks Report 2024 17