The Global Risks Report 2024

– Misinformation and disinformation may radically disrupt electoral pr ocesses in several economies over the next two years. – A gr owing distrust of information, as well as media and governments as sources, will deepen polarized views – a vicious cycle that could trigger civil unrest and possibly confrontation. – Ther e is a risk of repression and erosion of rights as authorities seek to crack down on the proliferation of false information – as well as risks arising from inaction. False information 1.3 Severity score: Misinformation and disinformation FIGURE 1.8 Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024. Rank: 1st 1%Persistent false information (deliberate or otherwise) widely spread through media networks, shifting public opinion in a significant way towards distrust in facts and authority. Includes, but is not limited to: false, imposter, manipulated and fabricated content. 16% 15% 23% 21% 16% 7%Average: 4.7 Proportion of respondents NoteSeverity was assessed on a 1-7 Likert scale[1 – Low severity, 7 – High severity]. The percentages in the graph may not add up to 100% because figures havebeen rounded up/down.2 years 7 High Low 6 5 4 3 2 1Severity The disruptive capabilities of manipulated information are rapidly accelerating, as open access to increasingly sophisticated technologies proliferates and trust in information and institutions deteriorates. In the next two years, a wide set of actors will capitalize on the boom in synthetic content, 8 amplifying societal divisions, ideological violence and political repression – ramifications that will persist far beyond the short term. Misinformation and disinformation (#1) is a new leader of the top 10 rankings this year. No longer requiring a niche skill set, easy-to-use interfaces to large-scale artificial intelligence (AI) models have already enabled an explosion in falsified information and so-called ‘synthetic’ content, from sophisticated voice cloning to counterfeit websites. To combat growing risks, governments are beginning to roll out new and evolving regulations to target both hosts and creators of online disinformation and illegal content. 9 Nascent regulation of generative AI will likely complement these efforts. For example, requirements in China to watermark AI-generated content may help identify false information, including unintentional misinformation through AI hallucinated content. 10 Generally however, the speed and effectiveness of regulation is unlikely to match the pace of development. Synthetic content will manipulate individuals, damage economies and fracture societies in numerous ways over the next two years. Falsified information could be deployed in pursuit of diverse goals, from climate activism to conflict escalation. New classes of crimes will also proliferate, such as non-consensual deepfake pornography or stock market manipulation. 11 However, even as the insidious spread of misinformation and disinformation threatens the cohesion of societies, there is a risk that some governments will act too slowly, facing a trade-off between preventing misinformation and protecting free speech, while repressive governments could use enhanced regulatory control to erode human rights. Jason Goodman, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2024 18