The Global Risks Report 2024

Societies divided Misinformation and disinformation and Societal polarization are seen by GRPS respondents to be the most strongly connected risks in the network, with the largest potential to amplify each other. Indeed, polarized societies are more likely to trust information (true or false) that confirms their beliefs. Given distrust in the government and media as sources of false information, 20 manipulated content may not be needed – merely raising a question as to whether it has been fabricated may be sufficient to achieve relevant objectives. This then sows the seeds for further polarization. As identified in last year’s Global Risks Report (Chapter 1.2: Societal polarization), the consequences could be vast. Societies may become polarized not only in their political affiliations, but also in their perceptions of reality, posing a serious challenge to social cohesion and even mental health. When emotions and ideologies overshadow facts, manipulative narratives can infiltrate the public discourse on issues ranging from public health to social justice and education to the environment. Falsified information can also fuel animosity, from bias and discrimination in the workplace to violent protests, hate crimes and terrorism. Some governments and platforms, aiming to protect free speech and civil liberties, may fail to act to effectively curb falsified information and harmful content, making the definition of “truth” increasingly contentious across societies. State and non-state actors alike may leverage false information to widen fractures in societal views, erode public confidence in political institutions, and threaten national cohesion and coherence. Trust in specific leaders will confer trust in information, and the authority of these actors – from conspiracy theorists, including politicians, and extremist groups to influencers and business leaders – could be amplified as they become arbiters of truth. Defining truth False information could not only be used as a source of societal disruption, but also of control, by domestic actors in pursuit of political agendas. 21 Although misinformation and disinformation have long histories, the erosion of political checks and balances, and growth in tools that spread and control information, could amplify the efficacy of domestic disinformation over the next two years. 22 Global internet freedom is already in decline and access to wider sets of information has dropped in numerous countries. 23 Falls in press freedoms in recent years and a related lack of strong investigative media, are also significant vulnerabilities that are set to grow. 24 Indeed, the proliferation of misinformation and disinformation may be leveraged to strengthen digital authoritarianism and the use of technology to control citizens. Governments themselves will be increasingly in a position to determine what is true, potentially allowing political parties to monopolize the public discourse and suppress dissenting voices, including journalists and opponents. 25 Individuals have already been imprisoned in Belarus and Nicaragua, and killed in Myanmar and Iran, for online speech. 26 Spenser H, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2024 20