The Global Risks Report 2024

Severity score: Interstate armed conflict FIGURE 1.11 Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024.Rank: 5thBilateral or multilateral use of force between states, manifesting as proxy war or open, hot war. 3%8% 13% 20% 24% 19% 12%Average: 4.2 Proportion of respondents NoteSeverity was assessed on a 1-7 Likert scale[1 – Low severity, 7 – High severity]. The percentages in the graph may not add up to 100% because figures havebeen rounded up/down.2 years 7 High Low 6 5 4 3 2 1SeverityRise in conflict 1.4 – Escalation in thr ee key hotspots – Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan – is possible, with high-stakes ramifications for the geopolitical order, global economy, and safety and security. – Geographic, ideological, socioeconomic and envir onmental trends could converge to spark new and resurgent hostilities, amplifying state fragility. – As the world becomes mor e multipolar, a widening array of pivotal powers will step into the vacuum, potentially eroding guardrails to conflict containment. The world has become significantly less peaceful over the past decade, with conflict erupting in multiple regions last year. 30 Active conflicts are at the highest levels in decades, while related deaths have witnessed a steep increase, nearly quadrupling over the two-year period from 2020 to 2022 (Figure 1.12), largely attributable to developments in Ethiopia and Ukraine. While difficult to attribute to a single cause, longer-term shifts in geopolitical power, economic fragility and limits to the efficacy and capacity of international security mechanisms have all contributed to this surge.Interstate armed conflict (#5) is a new entrant to the top 10 risk rankings this year. Specific flashpoints could absorb focus and split the resources of major powers over the next two years, degrading global security and destabilizing the global financial system and supply chains. Although war between two states in the strict definition remains relatively rare (Figure 1.12), this could contribute to conflict contagion, leading to rapidly expanding humanitarian crises that overwhelm the capacity to respond. Daniel, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2024 22