Third, with instant information networks and reinforcing algorithms, the symbolism of high-stakes hotspots could trigger contagion beyond conflict geographies. Deeply ingrained ideological grievances are in some cases driving hostilities, and these divisions are resonating with communities and political parties elsewhere. This expands beyond religious and ethnic divisions to broader challenges to systems of governance. National identities, international law and democratic values are coming into question, contributing to civil unrest, threatening human rights, and reigniting violence, including in advanced democracies and between the Global North and South. North-South rift Dissatisfaction with the continued political, military and economic dominance of the Global North is growing, particularly as states in the Global South bear the brunt of a changing climate, the aftereffects of pandemic-era crises and geoeconomic rifts between major powers. Historical grievances of colonialism, combined with more recent ones regarding the costs of food and fuel, geopolitical alliances, the United Nations and Bretton Woods systems, and the loss and damage agenda, could accelerate anti-Western sentiment over the next two years. In conjunction with more thinly spread resources and tighter economic conditions, military power projection by the West could fade further, potentially creating power vacuums in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia. France, for example, has withdrawn troops on request from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger over the past two years. 44 As the dominance of long-held power centres wanes, alternate powers will compete for influence in interstate and intrastate conflicts, potentially leading to deadlier, prolonged proxy warfare and overwhelming humanitarian crises. 45 There are a number of incentives to this involvement, from access to raw resources, such as minerals and oil, to the protection and promotion of trade, investment and security interests. Pivotal powers will also increasingly lend support and resources to garner political allies, taking advantage of this widening rift between the Global North and the Global South. As a new set of influences in global affairs takes shape, political alliances and alignment within the Global South will also shape the longer-term trajectory of internationalized conflicts. A deep divide on the international stage could mean that coordinated efforts to isolate ‘rogue’ states may be increasingly futile, while international governance and peacekeeping mechanisms shown to be ineffective at ‘policing’ conflict could be sidelined. Mathias Reding, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2024 26

The Global Risks Report 2024